Report Predicts $84 Billion Market Between Now And 2013
Thursday, ANN reported that the outlook for civilian rotor
flight -- the pilots, the manufacturers and the mechanics -- is
doing rather well. This, in site of the ongoing slump that has
plagued aviation since 9/11. Now, in a new study titled "The World
Market for Military Rotorcraft," Forecast International predicts
that 5,448 military rotorcraft, with an estimated value of $84
billion, will be produced in the 2004-2013 period. This total
includes both new-build rotorcraft as well as major modifications
such as the Boeing AH-64D and the Sikorsky UH-60M. A total of 1,668
major modifications are forecast, with an estimated value of $14.3
billion.
Forecast International projects that annual military rotorcraft
production will increase through most of the 2004-2013 timeframe.
In addition, the value of this production, as measured in constant
2004 US dollars, is also expected to grow through nearly the entire
period, with the growth in value of production outpacing the growth
in unit production. This is due to an increasing proportion of
relatively expensive rotorcraft in the annual mix.
Sikorsky, along with its newly acquired subsidiary Schweizer, is
projected to be the market leader both in unit production and
production value. The Connecticut company is expected to produce
1,237 military helicopters worth some $20.6 billion. Boeing is
predicted to be second in unit production with 983 rotorcraft
produced, and Eurocopter (with subsidiary Australian Aerospace) is
third with 554 units. The Eurocopter total does include production
by the NH Industries consortium, in which Eurocopter is a leading
participant.
In terms of production value, the Bell/Boeing V-22 tiltrotor
aircraft partnership is expected to be second to Sikorsky, with
$18.3 billion. Boeing alone is third with $12.9 billion.
The outlook for a number of companies is dependent on major
modification programs. This is particularly so for Boeing. More
than 80 percent of the projected military rotorcraft output at
Boeing during the next 10 years is expected to be remanufactured
rotorcraft. Sikorsky is not as dependent on modification programs,
though they do constitute an important part of the company's
future. Meanwhile, Sikorsky's acquisition of Schweizer provides it
with an enhanced presence in the light helicopter market and the
unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) market.
AgustaWestland is currently in a state of transition, with
co-owner Finmeccanica in the process of acquiring GKN's 50 percent
stake in the joint venture. The military rotorcraft market could
see further merger and acquisition activity. AgustaWestland and
Bell could perhaps in time formally merge. Though Lockheed and
Northrop Grumman do not currently build rotorcraft airframes, they
are involved in the industry, leading to some speculation that one
or both could eventually decide to acquire a rotorcraft
manufacturer.