Industry Shows Signs of Another Year in an Extreme Pilot Shortage

As most pilots know by now, the aviation industry has faced a nearly continuous labor shortage ever since the effects of COVID-19 began to wear off. Though at first the issue seemed to straighten out, all signs are now pointing at a serious lack of pilots in coming years.

In 2023, industry experts predicted that there would be a shortage of 613,000 to 649,000 pilots between 2023 and 2042. There were many triggers for this assessment, but the primary reason was lingering pandemic effects. This is a simple example of a supply and demand imbalance; hiring freezes and layoffs during COVID-19 caused the industry to be overpowered by the immediate surge in air travel once it was over.

 "2023 was a turning point for the majority of the industry—the infrastructure for pilot training had a hard time keeping up with the increase in demand while airlines were recuperating from the pandemic," noted Marijus Ravoitis, CEO of BAA Training. "This was an early warning sign of a much larger issue at hand. Which, looking at it today, is still prevalent.”

The 2023 estimate rose in 2024, reaching an expected shortage of 649,000 to 674,000 pilots between 2024 and 2043. By the time these numbers were released, factors like an aging workforce and collapsed flight training pipelines played a more prevalent role.

Airlines scrambled to combat these issues, including by chopping flight hour requirements and pushing recruitment methods. Industry leaders have even questioned delaying the retirement age or implementing single pilot operations. Arguably the most effective method, however, was the notable increase in pilot salaries and training reimbursements.

Flight training is not a short nor simple process, making it hard to tell how much of a dent the changes have put in the pilot shortage. But with air travel demand and the average workforce age both on the rise, it is unlikely that the issue will cease anytime soon.

On the bright side, those currently in flight training will likely find it easy to secure a job. American Airlines, for example, is estimated to hire over 1,500 new pilots within the next year.

“Time is of the essence here, as new pilot training takes a couple of years to complete—if everything goes according to plan,” Ravoitis continued. “Key moments to highlight—we already see that the standard pilot training programs are less popular, and airlines are looking for fast-track solutions.”

FMI: www.baatraining.com