Next 10 Years Predicted To Outpace Previous Decade On Both Units And Revenues

Jetcraft has released its fourth annual 10-year business aviation market forecast. The annual market forecast reaffirms that steady growth in the private jet industry is set to continue, with predictions of 8,736 unit deliveries over the next 10 years, representing $271 billion in revenues (based on 2018 pricing). North America will once again take the lead, accounting for 60% (5,241) of predicted new unit deliveries over the forecast period, with Europe expecting 18% (1,572), and Asia-Pacific 13% (1,136).

"2018 has been a real turning point for business aviation, as we have now successfully navigated through our industry’s most difficult period. This year’s forecast predicts the continuation of our current business cycle of steady and healthy growth, driven by an increase in wealth creation and the demand for larger and more expensive aircraft," said Jahid Fazal-Karim, Owner and Chairman of the Board at Jetcraft.

The increase in wealth creation over the past decade has spurred growth in family offices that are now offering a wide variety of specialized services, including business aviation. Together with the increase in block charter and fractional programs, this is exposing more UHNWIs to the industry than ever before.

However, despite continued economic growth, Fortune 500 companies have yet to return to historical aircraft transaction levels, due to maintaining a focus on other financial priorities, such as share buybacks and paying down debt. This customer segment is unlikely to restart aircraft purchasing programs until well into the cycle.

The forecast predicts that the large jet category, comprising super large, ultra long range and converted airline segments, will constitute 32% of total units (2,778) and 64% of total revenue over the next decade. All new aircraft model programs, both announced and projected, during the forecast period are exclusively widebodies.

"Predicted unit deliveries in the large jet category account for a huge proportion of total revenues in the industry, demonstrating the trend towards larger, long range aircraft to support today’s global business needs,” Fazal-Karim said.

While the industry is set to embark on a period of substantial growth, its resilience during the challenges of the previous business cycle has prepared it well for expansion.

"We’re confident that the lessons we’ve learned over the past decade will ensure sustainable growth for business aviation in the years to come. Ours is an enduring industry, and one with a buoyant future ahead,” Fazal-Karim said.

(Source: Jetcraft news release)

FMI: www.jetcraft.com/knowledge/market-forecast