Study Shows It'll Be Close For "Worst Year Ever" Title

The US Department of Transportation is set next week to release statistics on airline performance during 2007. It's not clear if weather-related disruptions during the holidays will pull 2007 down to be the worst on-time performance in recorded history, or whether adjustments made by DOT and the airlines in the final quarter managed to stave off that dubious title.

To be fair, on-time statistics have only been kept by DOT since 1995. The worst year on record has been 2000, when US airlines completed 73.5 percent of flights on time. Through November 2007, for the year, airlines were just above that, at 74.23.

While we're waiting for the government numbers, Flightstats.com is already out with its analysis of December. While the formula used to calculate performance varies a little from DOT's, Flightstats says just under 64 percent of flights were on time in December -- a far cry from on-time ratings that hovered just under 80 percent over the preceding three months, helped by better weather and a push by the federal government for airlines to boost performance.

The company tells MSNBC that among the worst offenders for the month were American, at 58.6 percent; United, at 55.18 percent; and Midwest Air, which arrived on-time a measly 41.25 percent of the time.

It will be difficult to make predictions for 2008 in apples-to-apples terms. Airline mergers appear imminent, DOT plans to cap flights at JFK starting in March, caps may also come to Newark, and caps may be removed at Chicago O'Hare. It's unknown what effect DOT's impact pricing initiative will have on delays, and a significant economic downturn could reduce passenger traffic.

New runways are scheduled to open at some of the nation's busiest airports during 2008, including Washington Dulles, O’Hare and Seattle-Tacoma.

FMI: www.flightstats.com, www.dot.gov