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Tue, Feb 15, 2005

Looking Good! GAMA's 2005 Forecast

It's Getting Better All The Time

GAMA Monday released its 2005 forecast -- painting a rosy picture about the growth of general aviation manufacturing and looking back on what the association calls "unprecedented growth."

Total industry billings rose 19.1 percent in 2004, according to the GAMA report, to $11.9 billion. That's the third highest billing for the industry -- ever.

"You may recall that 2003 was the worst year for GA airplane billings since 1998. To have billings rise so quickly from that trough is an indication that general aviation is becoming an even more significant part of the world's air transportation system," the report said.

The report notes an 8.1 percent increase in piston deliveries over 2003 and GAMA executives think the General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 has a lot to do with that. The law turned a decade old last year.

"GARA has proven to be a fair and evenhanded law," said the report, a copy of which was obtained by ANN. "Given the renewed health of the general aviation industry, while maintaining access to the judicial process, GARA has proven to be a tort reform law that benefits defendants, plaintiffs and society as a whole."

With that said, piston deliveries reached a 20-year peak in 2004.

Turboprop deliveries were up 18 percent in 2004, compared to the year before. The delivery of business jets also increased -- up 14.1 percent in the same period.

But perhaps you've noticed there are slightly fewer pilots out there than in years past. Truth be told, the number of pilots dropped 2.1 percent in 2004, a phenomenon GAMA suggests might be attributable to the number of retiring baby boom pilots. But "the pool of students remained stable and actually rose by 0.7 percent between 2003 and 2004," GAMA reported. "This is a clear sign that programs such as BE A PILOT are having their intended effect."

The number of accidents fell in 2004 when compared to the previous year, according to GAMA. The overall number of GA accidents was down 8.7 percent, while the number of fatal accidents fell 11.6 percent.

"Looking back on 2004, it is clear that it was the turning point for both the US economy and the GA industry," GAMA concluded. "A great deal of this turn-around can be attributed to incentives provided by bonus depreciation.... All this bodes well for our future."

FMI: www.gama.aero

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