"It's Not A Problem That's Coming. It's Here."

We hear often from NATCA that large numbers of air traffic controllers are about to retire. We've seen industry studies that show a large cluster of airline pilots is about to retire. But demographics are threatening shortages not only among the people who direct and fly planes, but the people who design and build them.

The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports about a quarter of the 637,000 aerospace workers in the US could be eligible to retire this year, leaving companies of all sizes anticipating shortages. The severity of the trends is being acknowledged from all corners of the industry.

Marion Blakey ended her five year term heading the FAA last year and took over as president and chief executive of the Aerospace Industries Association. "It's a looming issue that's getting more serious year by year," she says. "These are real veterans. It's a hard work force to replace."

Frank Larkin, spokesman for the 720,000-member International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers notes, "It's not a problem that's coming. It's here."

Officials of Cessna Aircraft have mentioned difficulty in recruiting qualified workers as a factor in recent decisions to keep manufacturing of its former Columbia Aircraft models in place in Bend, OR and to outsource assembly of its new light-sport 162 SkyCatcher to China.

Solving the problem will not be quick, easy or cheap. Aerospace companies and the analysts who watch them agree US schools have underperformed in preparing students in math and science. Colleges and universities are turning out far too few engineering and aeronautical graduates. Population trends have tended toward smaller families in the US since the greying baby boomers preparing to retire first entered the workforce.

Harry Holzer, a Georgetown University professor and former chief economist for the US Department of Labor, tells the Star-Telegram market forces may ultimately resolve the problem, but, "It won't be painless, and some real adjustments may have to occur."

Those market forces, limited supply and growing demand, have already elevated the pay of aerospace workers above other industries, to an average of $1,153 a week, according to the Department of Labor, but it's still proving an inadequate incentive.

Holzer notes that, ironically, the industry which played a major role in ending the Cold War has lost some of its cache in peacetime. He says aerospace doesn't have the recruitment appeal it did decades ago, and many young job-seekers regard aerospace plants as "old-fashioned industries."

As the industry faces the loss of tens-of-thousands of loyal, long-term employees and the reservoir of institutional knowledge they hold, Boeing is likely to draw some scrutiny. Whatever the company is doing, it appears to be having better success than rivals. Boeing has managed to recruit successfully in the 18 to 29 age group, possibly buoyed by the Seattle area's reputation for quality of life.

Lockheed Martin is working a very long-term strategy to get new recruits. The approach includes internships, aggressive recruitment in colleges and universities, and an outreach into public schools to get students interested in math and sciences. Lockheed has invited teachers to tour its plants, hoping they'll pass some of the resulting industry insights along to their students.

FMI: www.goiam.org, www.aia-aerospace.org