But Company's Public Statements Differ From Analyst Expectations

It's not difficult to understand how the longer a person is subjected to bad news, the worse they'll feel about themselves. If that's true, the reverse should be as well: if people hear positive news on a regular basis, their overall attitude will trend upward.

Perhaps no other company right now is adhering to the latter philosophy as much as planemaker Boeing.

USA Today noted this week top executives at Boeing have put on a brave collective face when talking about order cancellations, and the potential for unsold jets stacking up on the ramps in Seattle, Everett and Renton... or, worse still, idle production lines. At least publicly, Boeing officials continue to show confidence... despite the fact that, as of Thursday, Boeing had received nine more cancellations than new orders for the year.

Randy Tinseth, Boeing's VP of Marketing, says despite the current doom-and-gloom, the company's sizable backlog of nearly 3,700 aircraft should give the company some breathing room. If all those orders are retained -- an unlikely scenario -- Tinseth says Boeing has enough jets to build to keep its lines busy for at least seven years.

"We've clearly got a much larger backlog than we've ever had in previous cycles," Tinseth said. "That gives us flexibility as we go through this downturn."

Those sentiments were echoed earlier this month by Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Scott Carson (right), at the JPMorgan Chase investor conference. Carson said Boeing is "playing from a position of strength," and calls the projected market for new airliners over the next 20 years "a rich opportunity for us."

There are several others who don't think so, however. Talking about Boeing's backlog, Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia says "only a fool would believe in it," and that Boeing stands to lose a large number of orders down the line.

While financing opportunities for customers taking delivery of new Boeing and Airbus planes should hold through this year, Aboulafia sees a downturn afterward.

"...After that, all bets are off," he said. "In a serious downturn — and this certainly is one — production typically falls by about a third. I can't see why in this downturn it would be different."

Macquarie Research analyst Robert Stallard thinks even Aboulafia's comments may trend overly optimistic. He lowered his rating on Boeing in January, warning investors the planemaker "is underestimating the potential for lower airline demand."

Joseph Nadol at JPMorgan slashed his earnings estimates through 2010 for Boeing and Airbus last week, citing both the downturn in global passenger demand as well as a market for air freight that's "collapsed" by 25 percent over last year's levels. Nadol says that spells trouble for Boeing's new 777 Freighter.

Even the head of the International Air Transport Association says he's afraid neither planemaker will be able to deliver more than half the number of commercial airliners they build this year, after speaking with several airlines. Giovanni Bisignani said last month he fears large numbers of "white tails" -- fully built planes without buyers, hence no logo on the tail -- will start gracing ramps in Washington and Toulouse by the end of the year.

Then again, perhaps we should take this with a grain of salt... lest we, too, start becoming too depressed by bad news.

FMI: www.boeing.com, www.jpmorgan.com, www.tealgroup.com, www.macquarie.com/us/, www.iata.aero