Aerospace in the Future Perfect Tense

Boeing, the aerospace titan whose clippers, flying fortresses, jet airliners, jumbo-jets, and Starliners have alternately extended man’s reach, safeguarded his freedoms, and broadened his sense of possibility, has made public the results of its Pilot and Technician Outlook (PTO)—an arcane work of augury that peers twenty-years into the future of the aerospace industry and portends what profits or perils lie therein.

Happily, Boeing’s forecast calls for tremendous growth throughout the commercial aviation sector. Between now and 2041, the airframer predicts the global commercial fleet will grow to north of 47,000 aircraft—nearly double its current size. To support such a multitude of machines, Boeing posits that air carriers will need hire 602,000 pilots, 610,000 maintenance technicians, and 899,000 cabin crew members.

Boeing vice president Chris Broom states: "As the commercial aviation industry recovers from the pandemic and plans for long-term growth, we anticipate a steady and increasing demand for aviation personnel, as well as the ongoing need for highly effective training. Our customer-centric approach and digital expertise includes a commitment to delivering data driven, competency-based training and assessment solutions as well as technologies that meet the evolving needs of our customers."

Boeing’s PTO—which represents a 3.4% increase from 2021—excludes the Russia region, to which Western aircraft cannot be exported on account of wartime sanctions. While China, Europe, and North America represent more than half the total demand for new aircrew, cabin-crew, and maintenance personnel, the world’s fastest-growing commercial aircraft markets are Africa, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, all of which are expected to grow by more than four-percent over the forecast period.

Readers are reminded that Boeing’s PTO—after the fashion of all forecasts—is an exercise in speculation. Boeing’s purview is vast; the company exerts immense influence over and retains some of the best talent in the aerospace industry. That Boeing’s counsel merits consideration is undisputed—just as it’s undisputed that Pete Rose lost big betting on a game atop which he’d stood for decades.

FMI: www.boeing.com