Especially Regional Commuters

The market for turboprop engines is expected to remain strong over the 2004-2013 forecast period, although analysts at Forecast International believe that turbofan engines will rise in popularity at the expense of select segments of the turboprop market, particularly that of regional aircraft in the 50-75-passenger range.

"Turbofans will increase in popularity for aircraft between 50 and 75 seats," said David Franus, Senior Power Systems Analyst for Forecast International. "However, turboprops will continue to be the aircraft engine-of-choice for many purposes. In most cases, the military will continue to favor turboprops for the high lift they provide, and turboprops are also ideal for most hot-and-high altitude operations as well as transport to rural areas with short runways."

Much of the recent increase in turbofan use can be attributed to the rise in fractional ownership of business jets, and the increasing number of regional aircraft markets, especially in light of the public’s perception of jet aircraft as being superior to turboprop aircraft (in terms of modernity, as well as safety and speed). Companies such as Embraer and Bombardier offer turbofan designs that feature lighter materials and more efficient engines, which in turn offset many of the market advantages of turboprops.

Although proponents of turboprop aircraft believe that the turbofan has captured as much of the market as it ever will, turbofan proponents (particularly manufacturers) claim that, with the exception of cases where runway length is a factor, planes powered by 1,000-SHP turboprops would do better to replace their old engines with a state-of-the-art turbofan. However, according to Franus, "As the requirement for larger turboprop engines grows, we can look forward to manufacturers adapting other designs, particularly turbofans, for turboprop variants."

Turboprops may also face challenges from aviation diesels, or more efficient and reliable piston engines. Nonetheless, Forecast International predicts that during the 2004-2013 time period, the market for turboprop engines will remain strong, with a total of 9,538 engines expected to be produced at a total value of $7.8 billion.

FMI: www.forecast1.com