Many GA Segments Are Already Showing Measurable Improvement

In his most recent outlook, GA analyst Brian Foley says he sees an industry now poised to experience a nice growth spurt, albeit from an extremely depressed base. He likens the situation to what investors call a "dead-cat bounce", or a sharp, rapid upturn following a particularly severe decline.

Foley notes that many general aviation segments, including charter and fractionals, fuel sales, maintenance and other service providers, are already reporting measurable improvement. Aircraft builders are recovering as well, albeit more slowly. Large-cabin jet manufacturers have experienced an upswing for some time, and the beleaguered smaller aircraft segments will now follow, rounding out the rest of the recovery.

Foley anticipates that business jet deliveries will grow an average of 8% per year over the next five years, actually outpacing many industries outside of aviation. The twist, however, is not the rate per se but the unlikely source of all this growth. The large cabin jets that held their own relatively well during the downturn will grow at a modest 5% per year. However the truly spectacular growth, quite possibly upwards of 20% per year, will be seen in segments of the once decimated smaller cabin market. "This is very positive news," Foley said, "but let's keep it in perspective. It does not imply runaway growth so much as a bounce from unimaginable low delivery levels." 

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"The industry has literally nowhere else to go but up. History will one day show 2010 to have been the delivery low point, and 2011 the year the pessimism bubble finally burst."

FMI: www.brifo.com