Price Difference As Much As $300 Million Per Launch

Budget estimates recently released by the U.S. Air Force contain what could be very good news for SpaceX, and not so great news for United Launch Alliance.

The 2018 fiscal year estimates show that a typical SpaceX launch for the USAF in 2020 would cost taxpayers about $65 million, while a ULA launch carries a price tag ao $422 million, according to a report from Ars Technica.

But the numbers could be somewhat misleading, according to the report. Due to the constraints of the 2016 National Defense Authorization Act, the Air Force must make estimates of launch costs on a single budget line beginning in 2020. The $422 million figure represents a composite number arrived at by Ars Technica after conversations with space policy experts representing that the USAF believes it would have to pay if ULA continued to be the sole provider of its launch services.

But that's no longer the case. SpaceX has already launched one U.S. military satellite into orbit, and has contracts for two others. But the price tag for those exceeds the $65 million estimated in the budget document. One will cost $83 million, while the other is projected at $96.5 million. Ars points out that that seems to be comparable to the "unit cost" listed in the 2020 launch estimate released by the Air Force.

In a Twitter post, Musk said that the "$300M cost diff between SpaceX and Boeing/Lockheed exceeds avg value of satellite, so flying with SpaceX means satellite is basically free."

If the estimates hold up, it could be a boon for SpaceX, and could lead to ULA sharply reducing its asking price in an effort to stay competitive.

ULA CEO Tory Bruno responded on Twitter to the article posted by Ars, saying it was "misleading", but did not provide any updated cost data.

(Image from file)

FMI: Original Report