Which Airliner Will Russian Carrier Choose -- And Why?

There appears to be a new Cold War forming between the US and Russia... in the political arena, as well as in the commercial aircraft market. And the ultimate winner could be Europe's Airbus.

For the last several months, Russia's flagship airline Aeroflot has been mulling over its choices for a widebody airliner: the Airbus A350 and Boeing's 787, for an order reported to be worth an estimated $3 billion at list prices.

Many originally expected Boeing to have the upper hand in that negotiation -- after all, the Dreamliner already leads the A350 by over 100 orders, it will be available two years sooner (at least) than the A350, and is expected to be more efficient. But guess what? Airbus may wind up coming out on top... in fact, several Russian media sources over the weekend stated that Aeroflot has already agreed to purchase as many as 22 A350s, reports that were later picked up by United Press International.

What happened? The answer may lie in two areas: the substantial $100 million discount Airbus reportedly offered Aeroflot in February to sign for the A350s... and a more recent development that has everything to do with political tensions between the US and Russia.

Last week, US Vice President Dick Cheney criticized Moscow's commitment to establishing a full-fledged democracy, as well as the country's policy on energy reserves. That added to friction already between the two former Cold War adversaries, caused by Washington’s tough stance on Russia’s bid to enter the World Trade Organization.

Despite reports that Aeroflot had put its orders in the Airbus column, an unnamed source with Aeroflot told Reuters over the weekend the decision has not yet been made.

"This has become highly politicized," the source said. "It’s been delayed several times and ...it’s delayed again."

As for the two aircraft manufacturers, they're playing this close to the vest. An Airbus spokesman declined to comment on the matter... and Boeing only added that "we continue to talk with the customer."

It appears that, for now, the matter remains up in the air... but those tensions could spell added difficulty for the American manufacturer to gain sales against its European rival, at a time when Boeing has shown strength in the widebody sales arena compared to Airbus. Boeing's current 777 and upcoming 787 lines have garnered big order numbers recently, compared to a relatively poor showing by Airbus's A340 and A350.

What's more, this wouldn't be the first time political issues have spelled trouble for Boeing. Earlier this year, Aero-News reported on the impact political fallout over the bungled US-Dubai ports deal could have on Boeing's future sales to Emirates. Like Aeroflot, Emirates has also delayed its decision on their expected 50-aircraft order... possibly waiting for the political situation to stabilize, or perhaps to take another look at what numbers Airbus can offer the flagship carrier of the UAE.

In the highly volatile world of aircraft sales, however, Boeing could also end up the choice for both carriers... as Airbus is strongly rumored to be reconsidering the design of the A350, over concerns voiced by several customers (including Emirates). Any such redesign -- which would almost certainly result in a product superior to the 787 -- would also delay further the A350's original 2010 launch date... by as much as two extra years.

FMI: www.aeroflot.com, www.boeing.com, www.airbus.com