Wed, Feb 17, 2010
But Nearly Half Of New Airplanes Will Go To Non-North American
Markets
A new 10-year forecast from
aviation market consultant Brian Foley predicts a modest rise in
both business-jet deliveries and fuel consumption.
"We see deliveries rising at a steady 2.7% per year (Compound
Annual Growth Rate) between now and 2019," Foley (pictured,
right) said. In all, a respectable 8900 business
jets worth $170 billion will be delivered through the period.
Interestingly, some 48% of these will go to non-North American
markets, compared to a historical 30% -- a major shift.
Choosing 2010 as the starting point was absolutely key, Foley
explained. "2009 was too unsettled and 2008 was a clear
anomaly, an unsustainable peak. Our same numbers would
yield a minus growth -2.6% if measured against 2008, but that's not
really useful information. We won't see such high
delivery rates again this decade because of tougher financing for
aircraft purchase and especially the maturing of fractionals, which
are becoming a replacement rather than a growth market."
Foley acknowledges some other forecasters have offered rosier
predictions that rise on the graph like hockey sticks, without a
slowdown, but finds that argues with reality. "As an
independent, we don't have to worry about placating shareholders
and management. We can't ignore the variable nature of this
market, which historically has run in five- to six-year
cycles."
Foley's ten-year forecast of bizjet fuel consumption is not only
new but may be the first of its kind. "Rather than relying on
fragmentary data from FBO's and fuel suppliers, we've developed a
unique empirical method that looks at aircraft populations,
utilization rates, fleet modernization and other
factors. This lets us forecast consumption rates and
trends not just by year but also broken down by cabin class and
world region."
According to Foley's data, some 1.6 billion gallons of Jet A
were used by business jets in 2009, reflecting the drop in flying
hours caused by economic factors. Foley forecasts 21
billion gallons to be consumed through the coming decade, with some
fluctuation, but with the annual average reaching 2.5 billion
gallons in 2019 - a 57% increase."
The complete Foley Forecasts for business-jet deliveries and
fuel consumption, though published for Foley clients and
subscribers, can also be purchased by qualified interested
parties.
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