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Wed, May 19, 2010

Ash Cloud That Wasn't: Inaccurate Forecast Disrupts UK Air Travel

Tens Of Thousands Forced To Change Plans For No Real Reason

The most recent disruption of air travel in Great Britain was reportedly based on an inaccurate prediction from the UK Met Office.

When the forecasters issued an alert for dangerous levels of "black ash", airports around the U.K, including Heathrow and Gatwick, were closed for about 10 hours. When the office sent planes to actually check the ash levels in the air, they found they had been incorrect, and the air was fine for air travel.

But the Daily Mail of London reports that by that time, the damage was done. 169 operations were cancelled at Heathrow, and more than 200 had been wiped off the boards at Gatwick.

The Met Office stood by its forecast, saying computer models and satellite imagery corroborated evidence from test flights. The ash was present, but not at levels that should have grounded aircraft.

Heathrow and Gatwick re-opened at 1100 local time Monday. Air authorities have since changed the parameters for flight into areas where ash is known to exist, doubling the concentration of ash permissible for flights lasting an agreed-to maximum number of minutes. But airlines must have permission from both the aircraft and engine manufacturers to qualify for those operations. Officials say they hope that the new parameters will generate a level of cancellations more like a weather event, which is much more bearable for both passengers and the airline industry.

FMI: www.metoffice.gov.uk

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