Analysts Say Budget Short By Billions

NASA's reach for the stars suffered another blow last week, as a projected $6 billion deficit in the agency's troubled shuttle program over the next four years is threatening to seriously delay -- and possibly cripple -- President Bush's space exploration initiative. The only alternative might be to cut the number of planned shuttle flights virtually in half -- even after NASA has already scaled back its plans on that front, to the detriment of the ISS and shuttle-based research flights.

If the projections hold, NASA will have little choice but to reduce an already compromised shuttle flight schedule -- unless the White House agrees to add billions of dollars to the human spaceflight budget. Sources familiar with the ongoing budget fight between NASA and the White House say that is highly unlikely, according to the Washington Post.

Those same sources told the Post the additional costs are related to the significantly increased costs in the shuttle program as a result of the 2002 Columbia tragedy. As NASA has worked to make the shuttle safer, program costs have spiraled -- and the fact the shuttle remains grounded after Discovery's return-to-flight last July doesn't help the space agency's case.

One option seen as a way to reduce the deficit would be to limit the number of shuttle flights to two per year -- or 10 total -- until the shuttle is permanently retired after 2010. Even with the commensurate reductions in needed manpower, however, shuttle program manager Wayne Hale said that plan "frankly... doesn't save you very much money... From my point of view, that's a non-starter."

Terminating the shuttle program outright would cost as much money as keeping it going, added NASA Administrator Michael Griffin.

The budget battle has put President Bush's "Vision for Space Exploration" plan in doubt, less than two years after it was announced. The plan, which Bush called "a journey, not a race," was to have been completed without appreciable increases in NASA's budget -- essentially taking the 30 percent of NASA's budget currently related to the shuttle program, and reassigning it to be used in developing an expendable crew vehicle and lunar mission hardware instead.

If the budget shortfall proves to be as bad as feared, there would be no money available to develop the new crew exploration vehicle that would be used on future manned orbital and lunar excursions. The new vehicle was originally planned to fly by 2014, although Griffin had wanted it ready two years before that.

A lunar mission was to have been launched by 2018.

Although lawmakers passed the full $16.5 billion budget NASA had requested this year -- after Griffin earned congressional trust during his April confirmation hearings for his plan to separate the shuttle and exploration vehicle programs from the rest of NASA's budgetary portfolio --  it may still not be enough, as NASA fights against the assumption, made last year, that the shuttle's role in manned spaceflight would soon be reduced.

NASA supporters maintain the only way to give lawmakers and the president what they're looking for -- a continued American presence in space -- will require the additional funds.

"The decisions made over the next few weeks will determine whether the Bush White House is serious about supporting the vision," said John Logsdon, director of George Washington University's Space Policy Institute. "We've reached a watershed."

FMI: www.nasa.gov