But Growth Will Be Slow, Cautions Rolland Vincent

Aviation Analyst Rolland Vincent, president of Rolland Vincent Associates, says he is "very optimistic about Wichita," but that the recovery in the business jet market will continue to be slow.

Speaking Tuesday at the Wichita Aero Club, Vincent said that he sees a demand for  9,391 business jets in the 10 years from 2014 to 2023 valued at $257 billion. He said that 39 percent of those will likely be ultra-long-range jets, with the next largest segment being large long-range jets at 18 percent.

He said that the question he hears about Wichita being the next Detroit bother him, and he does not expect the kind of collapse seen in that city happening in the aviation sector. He predicts that there will be 718 business jets delivered in 2014, up from 678 last year.

The Wichita Eagle reports that Vincent said during his speech that there are multiple reasons for the low pace of growth in the segment. Buyers, he said have plenty of cash, but they're still skittish about the recovery ... and some are still working to get back to where they were six or seven years ago. He also said that flight operations have slowed, or in some cases stopped altogether. That, coupled with glut of used light and midsized jets on the market and increased competition from foreign companies like Embraer, is keeping the market down, he said.

Buyers also want planes with larger cabins and longer range, and "that's not what we do here ... yet." he said.

Vincent said that Cessna's Latitude and Longitude will help in that sector of the market, and that the acquisition of Beechcraft by Textron was good for the industry.

Vincent said that another positive factor is the backlog of orders for Boeing and Airbus ... both of which have supply chains that rely heavily on Wichita. And while he cautioned that the pace of orders for both planemakers is "not sustainable," there are probably seven to ten years of solid work to be done supplying commercial aviation.

FMI: www.wichitaaeroclub.org