Check Out THIS Weather Discussion!

(Forwarded by the Charlotte County, Florida, Emergency Management Office. You might remember Charlotte County was hardest hit by Hurricane Charley a month ago. Charlotte County Regional Airport was virtually wiped from the map)

Update: Tropical Depression #11, which formed near the Windward Islands Monday, became Tropical Storm Jeanne Tuesday. Jeanne is moving west-northwest at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of almost 60 mph.

The forecast calls for Tropical Storm Jeanne to move generally to the west-northwest over the next few days (image below), passing over or just north of Puerto Rico tomorrow afternoon, then continuing slowly on to the Southeastern Bahamas by the weekend. Upper level wind shear is forecast to keep Jeanne a Tropical Storm for the next 2-3 days, but conditions should improve by the weekend to allow Jeanne to strengthen into a minimal hurricane.

In fact, hurricane warnings have now been posted in both Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.

Beyond day 5, the forecasts for both Ivan (image below) and Jeanne become very interesting and unusual. It appears that the trough pulling Ivan into the Southeast, will not be strong enough to lift the remnants of the storm out of the region. Long range models are taking the circulation towards the Carolinas, but then building high pressure to the north, forcing the remnants to loop back south and west towards the lower Mississippi Valley. This could result in catastrophic rainfall over the Deep South.

Jeanne will appear to be turning north over the weekend, but may also get cut off by the building ridge of high pressure to the north, potentially forcing Jeanne westward across Florida next week. This entire scenario is highly uncertain and will once again demand close attention.

We will continue to monitor the track of this storm…

(Note: ...and so will we. -- ed.)

FMI: www.nhc.noaa.gov