FI Says Emerging Markets Won't Make Up For Sluggish US, EU Markets

The widely followed analysis firm Forecast International is out with a prediction that the return of a robust general aviation marketplace will not be a quick one. FI predicts we have two years of slow growth ahead worldwide, followed by an uptick starting in 2013.

In its study titled, “The Market for General Aviation/Utility Aircraft 2011-2020," FI projects that general aviation and utility aircraft manufacturers will produce over 24,000 aircraft worth approximately $28 billion in the coming 10 years. The firm excluded the production of business jets and light sport aircraft from this study, and notes that the economies of the United States and Europe have undergone a period of slow growth since the end of the global financial crisis and recession.

As those two regions represent the two primary markets for turboprop and piston-powered general aviation/utility aircraft, the tepid economic recovery in both areas has hurt growth in the general aviation market segment. Demand from other areas of the globe with higher economic growth, including emerging economies such as China, India, and Brazil, will not grow quickly enough to replace lost orders from customers in North America and Europe.

Production is forecast to climb slightly from 2011 through 2012, but the firm forecasts stronger growth starting in 2013, rising from a little over 1,900 aircraft in 2013 to more than 3,100 aircraft in 2020.

Of the 24,385 aircraft forecast for production during 2011-2020, production of piston aircraft will account for just over 18,400 aircraft worth $8 billion. Production of turboprops will total almost 6,000 aircraft worth approximately $20.5 billion.

“There have been signs of strengthening demand in the piston market, but the increase has been from a very low base,” says Douglas Royce, aerospace analyst at the company. “Getting production back to pre-recession levels will take years, if not the entire decade.”

Forecast International, Inc. calls itself a leading provider of market intelligence and analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems, and military electronics.  The company is based in Newtown, Connecticut.

FMI: www.forecastinternational.com