But Manufacturers Remain Cautiously "Bullish"

The 2009 International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders wrapped up its annual conference in Scottsdale, AZ this week. An audience of airliner buyers, sellers and lessors heard both Boeing and Airbus predict that they'll be able to meet jet production projections for 2009, and deliver a total of 965 planes.

Many financiers dismissed the prediction as unrealistic in the current credit environment.

Bertrand Grabowski of Germany's DVB Bank, a major European financier of airplanes, told the Seattle Times the only question is how much and how soon both Airbus and Boeing will cut production. 

"They will have to do it. It's a matter of fact," he said... a sentiment echoed by many analysts in attendance.

Even economist Adam Pilarski, of Avitas, had his figurative fingers crossed when he partially agreed with the manufacturers. After agreeing that this year's deliveries are safe, and in the long run the industry will resume its growth, he followed up by predicting that in 2011, deliveries will "...fall off a cliff. The crash has to happen and it will be severe."

Pilarski predicts 2011 combined deliveries for Boeing and Airbus will be down 30 percent from current levels, totalling just 666 planes.

Interestingly, Mark Pearman-Wright -- head of leasing and investor marketing at Airbus -- acknowledged the discord between manufacturer prognostifications, and analyst predictions.

"I've noticed the manufacturer mindset is more bullish," Pearman-Wright conceded. "It's not so much Airbus versus Boeing. It's the manufacturers versus the financiers."

FMI: www.airbus.com, www.boeing.com