Production Estimates Valued At Over $92 Billion Over 10
Years
In a new study, "The Market for Medium/Heavy Military
Rotorcraft," Forecast International projects that 4,319 such
rotorcraft will be produced during the 10-year time period between
2010 and 2019. The value of this production is estimated at $92.3
billion in constant 2010 dollars. In general, Forecast
International defines a medium/heavy rotorcraft as one with a gross
weight that equals or exceeds 15,000 lb.
The projections contained within the new Forecast International
study indicate that the medium/heavy segment of the military
rotorcraft market will experience strong growth in the near term.
Some decline in the market, though, is anticipated in the longer
term. On an annual basis, production in the medium/heavy military
segment is expected to grow by more than 25 percent in the first
half of the forecast period, from 391 rotorcraft in 2010 to 500 in
2014. A combination of factors is driving this growth, including an
influx of new models onto the global market as well as continued
robust rotorcraft procurement by the U.S. military services and
others.
The steady rise in output, though, will not extend into the
second half of the forecast timeframe. Beginning in 2015, annual
production in the medium/heavy military sector is projected to
trend downward, dropping to a level of 376 units by 2019. By this
point of the forecast period, production for a number of
high-volume procurement programs will be nearing an end, and many
of the production ramp-ups for once-new rotorcraft models will have
crested.
The Forecast International study also includes market share
projections by company for the 10-year forecast timeframe. These
projections indicate that Sikorsky will lead the market during this
period in both unit production and production value.
According to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst
Raymond Jaworowski, "Sikorsky benefits from a solid business
foundation of strong U.S. military procurement, as well as export
sales, of Black Hawk and Naval Hawk helicopters." Other major
players in the medium/heavy military rotorcraft market will include
Boeing, the NH Industries consortium (of AgustaWestland,
Eurocopter, and Fokker), and Russian Helicopters.
Black Hawk File Photo
Among the emerging trends in this market that are identified by
the Forecast International study is a new emphasis by the U.S.
military on technology innovation and new product development. In
recent years, rotorcraft procurement by the U.S. military services
has mostly been of improved derivatives of already-existing
helicopter types rather than all-new, clean-sheet designs. In
response, U.S. manufacturers have generally evolved their military
helicopter product lines around these requirements. Jaworowski
says, "In many ways, the U.S. military has the domestic helicopter
industry for which it has been asking." Concerns about the stifling
of innovation within this industry, though, have in part prompted
the Pentagon to launch a number of initiatives intended to
kickstart research and development efforts.