2024 Output Found to be Far Below Previous Estimates

The latest analysis by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) found that the growth of alternative aviation fuels was “disappointingly slow” in 2024. It referenced several major sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producers pushing production back to 2025.

The organization noted that production of SAF in 2024 will reach 1 million tons by the end of the year, more than doubling the amount manufactured last year. However, it still stands no chance against traditional fuel numbers. It only accounts for 0.3 percent of the global jet fuel produced.

This number is also half a million below the original 1.5 million ton estimate for alternative fuel delivery in 2022. IATA blamed several key SAF production sites in the US that have “pushed back their production ramp up to the first half of 2025.”

One of these SAF manufacturers, for example, is Phillips 66. While the company was able to successfully produce SAF in September 2024, it decided to delay large-scale output until early 2025. This aimed to wait out production to capitalize on the Inflation Reduction Act’s 45Z tax credit.

IATA now hopes that the SAF output will reach 2.1 million tons in 2025, still only making up 0.7 percent of total jet fuel production. 

“SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly. Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas,” expressed Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. “Make no mistake that airlines are eager to buy SAF and there is money to be made by investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonisation."

Alternative aviation fuels are arguably the most significant part of the global airline industry’s plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. To do so, IATA estimates that 3,000 to 6,500 new production sites will need to be created.

“Governments can accelerate progress by winding down fossil fuel production subsidies and replacing them with strategic production incentives and clear policies supporting a future built on renewable energies, including SAF,” Walsh continued.

FMI: www.iata.org