Recovery To Begin In 2004

The ICAO says, while airlines won't lose any money this year, they most likely won't gain any either. The agency, based in Montreal (PQ), says in 2004, passenger traffic should increase worldwide for the first time since the September 11th terror attacks on the US. In 2005, the agency predicts a 6.3 percent growth in traffic. After that, the world aviation body says growth should be restored nearly to pre-2001 levels -- about four percent a year.

In the wake of the terror attacks and the American response, worldwide air traffic dropped almost three percent. "These effects continued into 2002 and were intensified by the buildup to war in Iraq," the agency says in a statement. Traffic grew by only 0.4 percent in 2002 and fell in the first part of 2003 because of the Iraq war and the impact of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) crisis in Asia and Canada. "Recovery is now under way and traffic for 2003 is expected to be about the same as in 2002 on year-on-year basis," ICAO says.

The agency says North American and European traffic wouldn't increase, but would at least stabilize at 2002 levels, a forecast which should hold true for all of this year. "North American carriers were hardest hit by the shrinking demand following Sept. 11, 2001, and their passenger traffic is expected to recover to year 2000 levels only by 2004," it said.

The second most depressed region, Asia-Pacific, is expected to lose approximately .8 percent of the traffic it saw in 2002. Blame SARS and the worldwide economy, according to the ICAO. Passenger traffic in that region should surge ahead by 4.9 percent in 2004 and 6.8 percent in 2005.

The only regions of the world to clock any sort of growth this year are mostly those in the Third World -- Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. The ICAO described growth in those regions as "moderate."

FMI: www.icao.int