Forecast International Sees Production Decline Through
2011
A new study released by Forecast International projects that a
total of 11,437 business jets, worth an estimated $217.5 billion,
will be produced from 2010 through 2019. "The Market for Business
Jet Aircraft" also indicates that business jet production, which
has dropped sharply since late 2008, will continue declining
through 2011. A recovery in overall business jet build rates
will not occur until 2012, according to the Forecast International
projections.
The Forecast International study also examines in detail the
various trends and factors that drive the business jet market,
including the changing nature of the fractional ownership
industry. Aircraft demand from fractional programs helped
spurred the market to great heights in past years, but deliveries
to fractionals fell off substantially in 2009. The
fractionals are mainly concentrating on the operational side of
their business in order to generate cost savings. New order
activity by fractionals has been sparse during the downturn, but is
starting to pick up. According to Forecast International
Senior Aerospace Analyst Raymond Jaworowski, "The focus of many
fractional providers is on improving operations, reducing costs,
and consolidating aircraft fleets."
"The business jet market is not yet in recovery, but the worst
of the market downturn is over," said Jaworowski. "Order
intake remains sluggish, but the massive wave of order
cancellations and delivery deferrals experienced in late 2008 and
much of 2009 has receded. The market is no longer in
freefall." Order backlogs are a shadow of what they were two
years ago but, nevertheless, hundreds of business jet orders are
still on the books.
Meanwhile, the downturn has impacted the light and mid-size
business jet sectors far more than it has the large-cabin and
long-range segments of the market. While production rates of
all types of business jets have been slashed since late 2008, the
production cutbacks have been much deeper for light and medium jets
than for the larger types. Demand is already starting to
recover for larger, high-value business jets, but it remains
moribund for small and medium models.
The Forecast International projections indicate that the top
three manufacturers in unit production during the 2010-2019
forecast period will be Cessna, Embraer, and Bombardier. When
the market is measured in terms of the monetary value of
production, the top three are Gulfstream, Bombardier, and
Dassault.
A number of new business jets are on the way, as manufacturers
are hoping that new products will stimulate market demand and
kickstart the recovery. The top end of the market in
particular is drawing considerable attention, with Bombardier
recently launching its new Global 7000 and Global 8000 models to
battle the Gulfstream G650.