Some Models Strong, Others 'Dead' Airplanes

In an assessment of the Airbus fleet, analyst Scott Hamilton, managing director of Seattle-based Leeham News and Comment online, says some Airbus airplanes have a bright future, but some have jumped the shark and are what he considers "dead aircraft."

Hamilton previously had done a similar assessment at the request of Boeing of its products.

Airways News reports that one of those in the latter category is the A318, which had no orders in 2014. "Its still up there for historical and data purposes, but it's a dead aircraft," he said in his analysis.

Similarly, he said the A319, with eight net orders, and the A319neo with four net orders, are "dying." He puts the A319 in the same category as the Boeing 737-700 ... "niche" aircraft at best.

Doing better, but in transition, are the A320ceo with a net 155 orders. He says another product in that category is the the Boeing 737NG.

Rounding out the single-aisle category are the A320neo, which has 824 orders and will enter service two years ahead of Boeing's 737 MAX, assuming there are no problems with the airplane. And, he said the A321ceo has outsold the Boeing 737-900ER by two to one. "The launch of the of A321neoLR, [which] is as close to a 757 replacement that you can get, ... will drive the 737-900 further into the dust,” he said.

Hamilton sees softness in the A330-200 market for both passenger and freight variants, but the A330-900 will "give Boeing a real run for its money with the 787", which he says offers only about a 2-3 percent economic advantage over the A330 in real terms. As an added bonus, Airbus can slash prices on the A330 to make it attractive to airlines. "And it's available, where the 787 is not," he said.

Hamilton says the A350-800 is "dead", but the -900 variant is "a real winner. It's the airplane that is most in demand" because of "good economics and good range." He says the -1000 variant is "about 30 seats too small."

Finally, he said the A380 is a "good airplane" but employs outdated technology. Hamilton said he expects Airbus to announce an A380neo at the Paris Air Show this year.

FMI: http://leehamnews.com/