It Could Have Been Worse... (Part One of Two)

By ANN Correspondent Kevin "Hognose" O'Brien

Elsewhere, Aero-News has recapped the stories that were important in 2003. In some ways, the stories that didn't happen were just as important - especially the many things that didn't happen, but that we expected to see. Here are the top stories that didn't happen in 2003

10. Prediction of Major Aerial Terrorist Attack

Is Al-Qaeda on the ropes? Have our attacks kept them off-balance? Are new security measures working? Well, for whatever reason, the Middle Eastern savages that like to kill their way into the headlines weren't there, this year.

Their most effective attack this year on commercial aviation, an SA-16 missile attack on a DHL freighter in Baghdad, was a miserable failure - thanks primarily to the airmanship of the crew, which pulled off two approaches and a go-around on differential thrust and trim tabs alone (no hydraulics!).

It took Al-Qaeda years to come back and hit the Twin Towers the second time, and they seemed to have a long cycle between attacks (the Cole, the embassies), but the consensus is that the combination of newer security measures (like tying ATC radar to air defense radar) and attacks on terrorists, including the dismantling of several sham charities that played a big part in their funding, has made it impossible for them to equal their past horrors.

They haven't given up - as I write these words, Saudi authorities have taken into custody putative Al-Qaeda sponsored pilots who intended to ram a commercial aircraft with explosives-laden GA machines. (It's understood in the industry, but not by the public, that GA machines alone are not capable of inflicting mass casualties). This latest stunt shows that they continue to adapt - but it also shows that that continue to fail.

9. (Long) Over-Due Common Sense on TFRs

We have been waiting for an outbreak of common sense on TFRs. We'll be waiting again next year. Of course, anyone expecting common sense from a Federal bureaucracy probably has a Red Sox pennant hanging on his wall and wears a St. Jude medal.

TFRs still pop-up at no notice, and a pilot is in violation for not having the ESP to know it, or the precognition to not be in it when it materializes, unheralded. (And this is an opportunity to lift out hat to the FAA, which could, but has not, really slam pilots that are victimized by this kind of arbitrary TFR). Most of the pop-up TFRs are created for the benefit of various politicians that are criss-crossing the country, campaigning and feeling the love of a general public they want kept safely back. They think they're protecting themselves from the terror attack they're leaving you open to… they're probably wrong, but hey, they have the power. You don't.

The problem has been exacerbated by well-connected and amoral corporations like Disney and the NFL which have discovered that by applying money to those same politicians they can receive TFRs custom-tailored to reduce competition with others.

We thought that 2003 would see the coming of common sense, particularly with respect to the "pop-up stealth TFRs" and the "private profit TFRs." But while the FAA has been sensible about TFRs all along, the TSA wouldn't know sensible if they stole it from a passenger's carry-on. However, they will take care of you if you give the right money to the right politicians. But we probably can't outbid Disney for our airspace back.

8. Much Rumored Major Airline Liquidation/Failure

When 2003 rolled in, the question was not whether a major airline would be gone by the end of the year, but which. The answer in December 2003 is, knock me over with a feather, but none of them. At the end of 2002, US Airways and United were bankrupt, in Chapter 11 reorganization, and the conventional wisdom was that one of the other would be gone by the end of the year. American, which has been suffering ever since it swallowed Chapter 11 TWA, was in little better shape, and Delta was looking a little green around the gills. There were fewer safe predictions than Chapter 7 for one of these players by December. But... sometimes even a safe prediction doesn't happen.

When the dust settled at year's end, the only airline to liquidate in 2003 was perennially troubled Midway, in October. Midway had been in Chapter 11 even before 9/11, when things were rosy for better-managed lines. The only other line to enter bankruptcy in 2003 was Hawaiian, in March (Chapter 11). US Airways came out of Chapter 11 in March, and United execs see their line on track to complete its reorganization in 2004.

What happened? People started flying again, that's what happened. It didn't hurt that the Global War on Terror required heavy use of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet. The lines would rather be flying passenger routes - they're more predictable, and usually, more lucrative. But some extra DOD charters, which by law must fly on US carriers, arrived right when they could do some good. Add that to an improving economy, which brought lucrative business travelers back, a safe year for travel with no major or national line fatal mishaps, and some efficiency improvements in the new security routines - it all adds up to higher load factors, which can mean higher profits - and the remaining employees of these battered but unbowed lines can breathe a touch easier.

7. Pilot Glut

Related to the above, a pilot glut predicted by a number of industry pundits failed to materialize. While hiring remains lethargic compared to the go-go nineties, records show that pilot hiring continued in 2003. The majors only hired 600-odd pilots, replacing retirees, not enough to make a dent in their thousands of furloughed pilots, and a far cry from the thousands added annually in the years before the 9/11 attacks. But the bulk of the hiring came from the national and regional lines.

The smaller lines will not hire furloughed pilots, unless the furloughed guy or gal agrees to resign from the major-airline position, so most of these new hires are people moving up from the traditional feeder trades of Part 135 flying and flight instruction. But this means that the laid-off major-airline pilots are not really a factor in the airline job market - not as long as they have a hope of being reactivated (and retaining their all-important seniority) at their original line.

Next year should see some of the furloughed pilots and flight attendants get the welcome news that they have their jobs back… Southwest, which has behaved as if 9/11 never happened, will have 400 Boeing 737 pilot seats to fill. But the real growth story is not in the majors, but in the jet regionals where we expect strong hiring throughout 2004.

6. Promised Certifications (Many)

Do you have the list of aircraft that were going to certify in 2003 handy? A few that spring to mind are the Liberty trainer, Adam A500 twin (remember when it was the "Carbonaero?"), the Diamond DA42 TwinStar, and the Ibis Ae270 propjet. Heck, at one time, Eclipse was predicting 2003 for their machine with its revolutionary concept, manufacturing, and (at that time) all-new engines. All wound up having to rewind the clock, by a little or by a lot.

Everybody has a slightly different story. Liberty is in a tight spot financially and having some issues with fessing up to what's really goin on; the Adam project had an optimistic schedule (and has been less than forthcoming about their problems--EIC), Diamond is trying to slay the FAA and JAA dragons at the same time in a plane with new motors (whilce also developing a promising new single engine jet), and having a devil of a time with deicing. Ibis is awfully close and will probably certify early in the new year.

Some would-be machines were so similar to existing craft and had such heavyweight engineering behind them, that they looked like slam dunks (the Embraer 170--which finally got a Provisional TC in Mid-November). The lesson here is that certification is a bear, and it will cost several times the money and several times the time that you had in your most pessimistic budget. In 1903, as light as the Wright Flyer was, it far outweighed its documentation package. In 2003, thanks to a century of well-meaning help from government, the relationship is well on its way to being reversed.

In the case of Embraer's 70-seat jet, which had been test flying for two years, software glitches were reportedly to blame for the delays, but the glacial FAA response to Embraer's voluminous engineering documentation (over 1000 reports and counting) didn't help, and launch customers US Airways and Alitalia were left hanging.

This makes some of the certifications that were completed in 2003 more welcome. In some of them, like the innovative Beriev Be-103 amphibian (right), it's amazing that they were completed.

Finally, we have to note that the Cessna Sovereign midsize bizjet was on my first draft of this article, but Cessna did say Q4 2003 - and the machine was (provisionally) certified on December 24, 2003, a nice Christmas present for the Wichita firm, and good news to customers who hope to take delivery of the first Sovereigns in January.

Continued...