With SpaceX’s Push for 44 Launches Per Year, Delays Will Only Worsen

SpaceX’s plan to not only bring its Starship megarocket to the Sunshine State, but also expand operations to 44 launches per year could mean serious trouble for major airports and airlines. The FAA predicts average delays of up to two hours… or longer, if Starship keeps its habit of turning launches into firework shows.

In a draft environmental review, the agency confirmed that it expects to see average delays of up to two hours at major airports during launches, with reentries causing delays of up to an hour. Depending on traffic levels, as many as 200 aircraft per hour could be affected during a launch and up to 600 during a reentry.

The main problem comes down to airspace closures. Each Starship flight requires the FAA to carve out temporary hazard areas in the sky to keep airliners away from potential falling debris. For Starship, those closures stretch as far as 1,600 nautical miles eastward over the Atlantic, closing down entire air routes over the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America. Smaller Falcon 9 launches already shut down airspace from Cape Canaveral dozens of times per year, but Starship’s sheer size (and track record of blowing up mid-flight) makes for much larger disruptions.

The agency pointed to Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, and Orlando as airports likely to see average delays of two hours when Starship takes off. Travelers could also face diversions or outright cancellations, though no airports have done formal planning with the FAA or SpaceX. The draft review says the impact could shrink slightly if the system becomes more reliable, but that could be difficult to prove; Starship has already suffered four total vehicle losses this year, and its tenth flight was just scrubbed after another pad issue.

Meanwhile, construction is well underway on a Starship pad at Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39A, along with a massive Florida assembly facility dubbed the “Gigabay.” SpaceX is hoping to begin Cape Canaveral launches before the year’s end despite little assurance that regulators and airlines know how to keep the state’s commercial airspace running smoothly.

FMI: www.spacex.com