Overall Incident Rate Remained Constant Since '80s

The results of a study conducted by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health present a mixed bag for commercial airline pilots. Although the overall rate of mishaps involving US airliners has remained more-or-less constant since the early 1980s, those pilots are to blame for far fewer accidents than before.

The study states the number of US airline accidents due to pilot error "significantly declined" between 1983 and 2002, reports MSNBC.

"A 40 percent decline in pilot error-related mishaps is very impressive. Pilot error has long been considered the most prominent contributor to aviation crashes," said the study's lead author, Susan Baker.

There are many likely reasons why that's happened, Baker said. At the top of the list is training improvements, avionics upgrades and increasing reliance of cockpit resource management (CRM) guidelines and procedures.

"We saw a reduction in pilot error crashes where crew interaction was a factor. That, and weather-related decisions," said Baker. "Trends indicate that great progress has been made to improve the decision-making of pilots and coordination between the aircraft's crew members."

The study will be published in the January 2008 issue of "Aviation, Space and Environmental Medicine." Researchers combed through the findings from 558 incidents, looking for detectable trends.

Not all those incidents were crashes, Baker noted. "Maybe a quarter involved turbulence," she said. Others involved ground handling mishaps -- one area that saw an increase in accident rates, though in most cases pilots weren't to blame. Instead, researchers say, inadequate ramp crew training and increased ramp congestion are behind the spike.

Researchers also found a sharp drop in the number of accidents attributable to mishandling wind or runway conditions. "I would think training would have a lot to do with that," said Baker of the reported 78 percent drop. "But it's not just training. I think a lot of it may be technology."

Mishaps caused by poor crew interaction dropped 68 percent -- from 2.8 incidents per 10 million departures, to .09. "I would certainly attribute that to cockpit resource management," she said. Takeoff accidents related to pilot error fell by 70 percent.

FMI: www.jhsph.edu/