Fri, Jan 14, 2005
Forecast1 Sees $13.8 Billion Market Through 2014
"Air-to-air missiles may have played
only a minor role in the recent fighting in Iraq, but they remain
crucial to any wartime effort for achieving air superiority," says
Larry Dickerson, Missile Analyst for Forecast International.
According to Dickerson, "The lack of headline-grabbing aerial
engagements in the skies over Iraq does not mean air-to-air
missiles have lost their appeal."
Air-to-air missiles will generate $13.8 billion in revenues over
the next 10 years for the world’s top defense firms. More
than 51,000 missiles will be produced through 2014.
"The leading air-to-air missile firms will be Raytheon and
MBDA," said Dickerson. "Sales of the AIM-9X Sidewinder and AIM-120
AMRAAM will generate $3.4 billion for Raytheon. MBDA is not far
behind with about $2.89 billion in projected revenue from
air-to-air missiles," he said. MBDA’s product line includes
the MICA and ASRAAM.
In the future, MBDA will begin offering the next-generation
Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile. The firm hopes to
break Raytheon’s grip on the medium-range segment of this
market. Raytheon’s AMRAAM has out sold all its
competitors.
Raytheon and MBDA account for 46 percent of all sales in the
air-to-air missile market. If certain non-competitive firms are
eliminated from the rankings, the market share of these firms jumps
to 64 percent.
According to Dickerson, "Companies
located in China, Japan, Taiwan and India sell missiles almost
exclusively to their own governments. They may produce large
quantities of missiles but they win very few export orders."
A problem for Europe concerns fighter aircraft sales, which spur
purchases of air-to-air missiles. "The United States is expected to
sell a far greater number of combat fighters than Europe in the
future," Dickerson said. These larger sales give the US an
advantage in the air-to-air missile market. Also, purchasers of
US-built aircraft do not always have the option of arming them with
European-made missiles. "MBDA must be able to offer the option of
arming American fighters with its missiles if it is to have any
chance of challenging Raytheon’s dominance of this market,"
said Dickerson.
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