7E7 "Dreamliner" Will Likely Get Built: Condit

It's not the way to predict things, by saying that after a row of false starts, Boeing's ready to actually start work on a new airplane; but that's the message Boeing's chair, Phil Condit, gave reporters in London last week.

He said that, "By the law of averages, we must be at the right place," after the start-stop programs that included the 747X, the Sonic Cruiser, and the 747-800. Add to those notable flops the stillborn 767-400ER and a couple other 747 ideas, and anyone would conclude that, this time, Boeing's marketing mavens would have it right; except that they have had it wrong, so consistently, lately.

That's not to say that Airbus has been hitting nothing but home runs, either: the A3XX (A380) is a very risky program, particularly so as it was launched before the terrorist attacks; and the A400M military heavy-lifter program is not much more than a joke, except to the governments that got a piece of the "action," and will have to pay so dearly for their "jobs programs."

Overcapacity in the big-airliner industry will be a factor for a long time; and that systemic problem will not go away until the flying public stops minding being hassled at every turn, and until some failed airlines are permitted by their sponsor-governments to actually fold up.

 Condit, in making the remarks, certainly knows that, by the time the new "Dreamliner" gets into the air, a lot of that overcapacity, at least in older airframes, will be back at the recyclers. If the 7E7 delivers, as predicted, 20% or more efficiency, its viability, by 2008, should be a no-brainer.

FMI: www.boeing.com