Carriers Take a Hard Look at Whether Russian Integration is Appropriate

In a tit for tat move for the British ban on Russian-owned aircraft in their airspace, the country's civil aviation regulator, Rosaviatsia, has returned the favor by barring UK-operated aircraft from Russian airspace.

The Russian restriction was said to be the result of "unfriendly decisions by the UK aviation authorities," that "restricted regular flights of aircraft owned, leased or operated by a person associated with, or registered in Russia."  It should be noted that Russia is only expected to impose bans on foreign operators should they receive one first, as no spontaneous sanctions have even been floated by their regulators in passing. Now, both countries are subjected to long roundabout passages to avoid affected airspace in normal operations. British Airways has apologized to passengers and canceled all 3 of its weekly Moscow-London flights, with no promise that operations would ever resume. For now, the effects of the ban will depend heavily on the city pair, with some routes adding upwards of an hour to their European flights, or as little as 15 minutes between the UK, Pakistan, and India. 

The change was only the first of the high-profile changes in the industry. Delta's exit from a codesharing agreement with Aeroflot was similar, with more of the same to become increasingly common as others take their lead. It may be possible that corporate leadership has awaited a full response from western governments before acting, waiting for guidance on just how far possible sanctions would go. With multiple levels of authority capable of blocking airspace and transit to Russian entities from the international, to the federal, to the state, and even the company level, it seems likely that acting too soon could lead to many doubled and redundant responses. The governing council of the UN's aviation agency, the ICAO, began discussing options of its own, which some worry could derail the fragile airline recovery in Europe should they target too wide a field. 

 Industry analysts have told investors to expect further bans on Russian operations should be expected throughout Europe, with Poland and the Czech Republic next up to enact their bans. While many still use the Russian east-west transit corridor, the more forward-looking have begun looking at passing through Anchorage, Alaska in a path that echoes its use as a cold war transit hub. Airspace in bordering nations has also been closed to transit, affecting Moldova and portions of Belarus with more expected on the way. Even if the airspace is legally open, operators are hesitant to risk straying too close to jumpy young privates on bleary-eyed night watch, sleepily manning the anti-air systems. 

FMI: www.delta.com, www.caa.co.uk