Charlotte Crash Focuses on Weight

The crash on January 8, of the Beech 1900 that killed 21 people in Charlotte (NC), is giving another look to the assumptions that are made by the FAA, especially regarding "average" passenger and bag weights.

An "average" passenger, with clothes and carry-on, the FAA says, weighs 175 pounds. That's clearly no problem, for the charters that specialize in junior-high debate teams; but, in light of the Centers for Disease Control's finding (in 1994, the latest date available) that an "average" US male weighs over 180 pounds (without clothes), there may be a problem in the making.

After September 11, with additional checked-baggage hassles, it stands to reason that more stuff will find its way into the carry-on bags.

As "voluntary" (that is, non-business) travelers declined in number after September 11, the makeup of the passenger lists very likely changed, weighted more-heavily with men -- businessmen, specifically. Men are heavier, in general. As those "voluntary" travelers declined, the proportion of children aboard must have gone down, as well, further skewing the "average" weight. Winter travelers, wearing heavy clothes, are generally heavier than summer travelers. Four or five pounds' difference in clothing weight doesn't sound like a lot -- until you multiply that by 250 passengers...

Add to the calculation that the FAA uses -- that an "average" piece of checked baggage weighs 25 pounds -- and you have the fixin's for a major miscalculation. Since those carry-ons now have a long list of prohibited items, more routine stuff is getting crammed into checked baggage. This, in the absence of any real studies, could easily go either way: either we'll see more checked bags (with a lower average weight), or we'll see fewer (with a higher average), which would also tend to push carry-on bags' average upward, making the "average passenger" even heavier.

Specifically relating to the Charlotte crash, there is a background rumor that early estimates of the total payload weight were several hundred pounds below actuals, due to a piece of some particularly dense cargo. CG concerns are also being given a lot closer look. As more data get confirmed, we'll keep you informed. The passenger manifest listed 16 men, two women, and one child. (The cockpit held a female pilot and a male copilot.)

Regardless, in light not only of the increasing girth of Americans, but of the noticeably-changed demographic of air travelers since September 11, 2001, we believe it's time for the FAA to gather some new data.

FMI: www.faa.gov; www.airlines.org