Analysts Say Budget Short By Billions
NASA's reach for the
stars suffered another blow last week, as a projected $6 billion
deficit in the agency's troubled shuttle program over the next four
years is threatening to seriously delay -- and possibly cripple
-- President Bush's space exploration initiative. The only
alternative might be to cut the number of planned shuttle flights
virtually in half -- even after NASA has already scaled back its
plans on that front, to the detriment of the ISS and shuttle-based
research flights.
If the projections hold, NASA will have little choice but to
reduce an already compromised shuttle flight schedule -- unless the
White House agrees to add billions of dollars to the human
spaceflight budget. Sources familiar with the ongoing budget fight
between NASA and the White House say that is highly unlikely,
according to the Washington Post.
Those same sources told the Post the additional costs are
related to the significantly increased costs in the shuttle program
as a result of the 2002 Columbia tragedy. As NASA has worked to
make the shuttle safer, program costs have spiraled -- and the fact
the shuttle remains grounded after Discovery's return-to-flight
last July doesn't help the space agency's case.
One option seen as a way to reduce the deficit would be to limit
the number of shuttle flights to two per year -- or 10 total --
until the shuttle is permanently retired after 2010. Even with the
commensurate reductions in needed manpower, however, shuttle
program manager Wayne Hale said that plan "frankly... doesn't save
you very much money... From my point of view, that's a
non-starter."
Terminating the shuttle program outright would cost as much
money as keeping it going, added NASA Administrator Michael
Griffin.
The budget battle has put President Bush's "Vision for Space
Exploration" plan in doubt, less than two years after it was
announced. The plan, which Bush called "a journey, not a race," was
to have been completed without appreciable increases in NASA's
budget -- essentially taking the 30 percent of NASA's budget
currently related to the shuttle program, and reassigning it to be
used in developing an expendable crew vehicle and lunar mission
hardware instead.
If the budget shortfall proves to be as bad as feared, there
would be no money available to develop the new crew exploration
vehicle that would be used on future manned orbital and lunar
excursions. The new vehicle was originally planned to fly by 2014,
although Griffin had wanted it ready two years before that.
A lunar mission was to have been launched by 2018.
Although lawmakers passed the full $16.5 billion budget NASA had
requested this year -- after Griffin earned congressional trust
during his April confirmation hearings for his plan to separate the
shuttle and exploration vehicle programs from the rest of NASA's
budgetary portfolio -- it may still not be enough, as NASA
fights against the assumption, made last year, that the shuttle's
role in manned spaceflight would soon be reduced.
NASA supporters maintain the only way to give lawmakers and the
president what they're looking for -- a continued American presence
in space -- will require the additional funds.
"The decisions made over the next few weeks will determine
whether the Bush White House is serious about supporting the
vision," said John Logsdon, director of George Washington
University's Space Policy Institute. "We've reached a
watershed."