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Tue, Aug 02, 2005

Whither Virgin Galactic?

President Of Space Tourism Pioneer Speaks At OSH

Will Whitehorn, President of Virgin Galactic, in a press forum shared with Burt Rutan, Brian Binnie and Mike Melvill, had a lot to say at AirVenture. Buried deep in his extemporaneous presentation were some possible hints at what will be revealed in the days and week ahead.

Most intruiging was a hint that Virgin Galactic hopes to fly as soon as three years from now. Whitehorn wouldn't be pinned down on the schedule -- yet -- but it would seem to confirm rumors that Sir Richard Branson is seeking a very aggressive flight test and in-service schedule for the craft they're still calling SpaceShipTwo.

One more bit of potential corroboration is Mike Melvill's comments about his involvement in the project. Aero-News asked him what his role would be, and he replied that he would like to be involved in developmental flight test on the project, but he wouldn't be involved "in commercial flights," he said. "I'll be 65, I'll be too old." He is currently 63.

This is a pretty thin factual basis upon which to hang speculation about Virgin Galactic's flight schedule, but it's what we've got at this time.

Burt Rutan had indicated that he had market research figures indicating that about 110,000 people would fly in space in the first ten years. "If those numbers are right, our business plan indicates that we'll have about a third of the market."

Ah, but what's it going to cost? If you have to ask, you might not be the right candidate. Initially it's going to be "very expensive," said Whitehorn. But in time, given economies of scale that might operate similarly to the early years of the airline or air charter businesses, it might come down -- to $50,000. "That's the price of a cruise, and for that, we're offering a really unique experience." (A cruise costs $50k? Who knew?)

Given the very high projected cost of commercial space flight in its early years, the people coming on board early tend to be those with a lot of money and a reputation for conspicuous consumption. In response to a question about celebrities who had signed up for flights, Whitehorn said that a dozen household names from Hollywood alone --actors, directors, and producers -- had signed up for the flights, along with many other famous people. "And famous people from the world of aviation," he said, indicating that those names would be released later.

One name he did mention was actress Victoria Principal. He also promised that more names -- and much more information -- would be released over the next three days.

Some tickets will be released to organizations. For example, the National Space Society will be receiving one ticket per year. It's up to them what they do with it: they can award it on merit, or have a contest, or raffle it off.

Whitehorn also stressed that VG was in the extreme adventure sports market, and was not, repeat not, an airline. But certainly, Virgin Group encompasses (among other businesses) three airlines; and the Virgin Galactic suborbital adventure may also serve as a proof of concept for spacefaring travel.

A suborbital, ballistic trajectory could make the planet even smaller. "It may be a while, but it has the potential for the New York or London to Tokyo in two and half hours that people have been talking about," he said.

FMI: www.virgingalactic.com

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