Wed, Apr 17, 2024
Airbus Forecasts 45% Increase in Global Services Forecast
In a recent announcement from Herndon, Virginia, Airbus has outlined a robust growth trajectory for North America's commercial aircraft services market, projecting an expansion to $45 billion by 2042, from its current valuation of $31 billion. This forecast, a 45% increase, is anchored in Airbus' latest Global Services Forecast (GSF), reflecting the region's swift recovery in the post-pandemic era and a steady passenger traffic growth with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1%.
The anticipated expansion is largely attributed to the escalating demand for digitally-enabled and connected aircraft, alongside an increase in annual air traffic and fleet growth. Airbus' forecast highlights that the maintenance market in North America is set to burgeon from US$25.9 billion to US$37.8 billion over the next two decades, driven by the needs for passenger-to-freighter conversions and the utilization of used serviceable material, estimated to be worth a cumulative US$17 billion.
A significant portion of the market's growth is expected in the enhancements and modernization sector, poised to experience the largest average annual growth rate of +4.1% between 2023 and 2042. This sector, forecasted to grow from $1.9 billion to $4.1 billion, will likely see a surge in demand for cabin and system upgrades, especially until 2030, as part of efforts towards fleet and air traffic infrastructure modernization. Additionally, the push for aircraft connectivity will play a critical role, with projections indicating that by 2042, 90% of the North American fleet will be connected in real time, enhancing both operational efficiency and the passenger experience.
Furthermore, the market for training and operations is expected to rise from $2.5 billion in 2023 to $3 billion in 2042, reflecting a moderate growth post a sharp increase in the years following the pandemic. With an anticipated need for 366,000 new skilled professionals in North America over the next 20 years, including pilots, technicians, and cabin crew members, Airbus emphasizes the region's potential for aftermarket services, efficiency improvements, and sustainable operations.
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