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Mon, May 10, 2004

Forecast For BizJets: CAVU

New Report Sees 23-Percent Rise In Deliveries In Next Decade

Wow. The light at the end of the tunnel for the business jet industry looks almost blinding if you believe a new report from Teal Group aerospace analyst Richard Aboulafia.

In the next ten years, Aboulafia predicts the number of bizjets to be delivered by various manufacturers will come to 6,400. That's a 23-percent increase, better than his forecast of a year ago.

So who will deliver these business-class aircraft? Aboulafia predicts Cessna will deliver 2,504 business jets between 2004 and 2013. He says Bombardier will deliver 1,026 business jets and Raytheon Aircraft will build and send 980 business jets to clients worldwide.

But when you look at it from a Wall Street perspective, Aboulafia says Gulfstream will make the most money on new jet business.

Aboufalia's report is by no means pollyanic, however. He suggests Raytheon will struggle in the coming decade. He notes the company, which owns Beechcraft, is struggling now, with poor earnings and a decidedly smaller share of the market. But Aboufalia says Raytheon is making big strides to correct these issues, including a newly energized sales team.

FMI: www.tealgroup.com

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