Report Predicts $84 Billion Market Between Now And 2013

Thursday, ANN reported that the outlook for civilian rotor flight -- the pilots, the manufacturers and the mechanics -- is doing rather well. This, in site of the ongoing slump that has plagued aviation since 9/11. Now, in a new study titled "The World Market for Military Rotorcraft," Forecast International predicts that 5,448 military rotorcraft, with an estimated value of $84 billion, will be produced in the 2004-2013 period. This total includes both new-build rotorcraft as well as major modifications such as the Boeing AH-64D and the Sikorsky UH-60M. A total of 1,668 major modifications are forecast, with an estimated value of $14.3 billion.

Forecast International projects that annual military rotorcraft production will increase through most of the 2004-2013 timeframe. In addition, the value of this production, as measured in constant 2004 US dollars, is also expected to grow through nearly the entire period, with the growth in value of production outpacing the growth in unit production. This is due to an increasing proportion of relatively expensive rotorcraft in the annual mix.

Sikorsky, along with its newly acquired subsidiary Schweizer, is projected to be the market leader both in unit production and production value. The Connecticut company is expected to produce 1,237 military helicopters worth some $20.6 billion. Boeing is predicted to be second in unit production with 983 rotorcraft produced, and Eurocopter (with subsidiary Australian Aerospace) is third with 554 units. The Eurocopter total does include production by the NH Industries consortium, in which Eurocopter is a leading participant.

In terms of production value, the Bell/Boeing V-22 tiltrotor aircraft partnership is expected to be second to Sikorsky, with $18.3 billion. Boeing alone is third with $12.9 billion.

The outlook for a number of companies is dependent on major modification programs. This is particularly so for Boeing. More than 80 percent of the projected military rotorcraft output at Boeing during the next 10 years is expected to be remanufactured rotorcraft. Sikorsky is not as dependent on modification programs, though they do constitute an important part of the company's future. Meanwhile, Sikorsky's acquisition of Schweizer provides it with an enhanced presence in the light helicopter market and the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) market.

AgustaWestland is currently in a state of transition, with co-owner Finmeccanica in the process of acquiring GKN's 50 percent stake in the joint venture. The military rotorcraft market could see further merger and acquisition activity. AgustaWestland and Bell could perhaps in time formally merge. Though Lockheed and Northrop Grumman do not currently build rotorcraft airframes, they are involved in the industry, leading to some speculation that one or both could eventually decide to acquire a rotorcraft manufacturer.

FMI: www.forecast1.com