One of the most intriguing pieces of information to come out of the annual Heli-Expo is the Roll-Royce annual ten-year forecast of worldwide turbine helicopter deliveries. The forecast, which was presented at Heli-Expo 2003 by Alex Youngs, the company’s Director for Business Development – Helicopters, projects worldwide deliveries of turbine-powered helicopters and rotary-wing UAVs in all size classes, both civil and military, from 2003 until the end of year 2012.

For the second year in a row, Rolls-Royce has teamed-up with industry forecasting specialist the Teal Group to provide what both companies believe is the definitive turbine helicopter market forecast. This partnership allows the companies to pool their respective analytical tools, forecasting databases and industry surveys, thereby creating the most accurate survey available.

OVERALL SUMMARY

During the 2003-2012 period, some 10,407 turbine helicopter deliveries are forecast worldwide. This is a five percent increase over last year’s forecast, attributable to the onset of major military acquisition programs over the period, together with a shallower near-term downturn associated with the current economic downturn. On a unit basis, the split between civil and military sales is 50:50, although on a value basis, the split is 22:78.

CIVIL SUMMARY

Civil helicopter deliveries are projected to total 5,161 units during the next ten years, a seven percent increase over last year’s forecast. This change is again associated with a forecast improvement in general economic conditions over the period, together with an injection of activity provided by paramilitary sales. Turbine singles (54 percent of deliveries) and light twins (27 percent) will dominate the market. Deliveries are expected to grow slowly over the period from a low of 497 units (compared to 480 in 2002) to a peak of 533 at the end of the period.

MILITARY SUMMARY

Our forecast projects a total of 5,246 military helicopter deliveries and major engine-related upgrades during 2003 - 2012, which is a four percent increase from last year’s forecast. This increase reflects the onset of the long-awaited re-equipment phase of the market and the eventual entry into service of rotary wing unmanned air vehicles (UAVs), offset by cutbacks in a number of big ticket programs. Approximately 47 percent of all unit deliveries will be multi-engine heavy rotorcraft, primarily troop transports and maritime patrol helicopters, with 24 percent being intermediate twins (chiefly light attack helicopters and tactical transports).

The new military rotorcraft shipment forecast indicates a thirty-three percent increase in military deliveries over the next five years, with demand levelling-off thereafter. The number of major engine-related upgrade programs is expected to triple over the period as key recapitalization efforts commence. Program delays, budgetary constraints and changes in some governments’ leadership have historically affected the approval and delivery schedules, and there still remains what is considered to be a ‘bow wave’ effect in the military rotorcraft procurement profile. The problematic nature of this effect to long-term forecasting is readily exemplified by recent delays and volume reductions associated with such programs as the RAH-66 Comanche and Eurocopter Tiger.

FMI: www.rolls-royce.com, www.tealgroup.com