Near-Term Slowdown In Growth Seen As Short-Term
Boeing said world air cargo growth will expand at a 5.8 percent
annual rate over the next two decades, with worldwide air freight
traffic tripling through 2027, according to Boeing's World Air
Cargo Forecast 2008/2009.
Air cargo traffic will grow over the long term despite current
near-term market weakness and worldwide economic uncertainty. The
industry has shown strong recoveries from previous economic
downturns such as the Asian economic crisis, the 9/11 attacks and
the SARS outbreak.
Boeing released the biennial forecast, which is widely cited by
airlines and industry groups, at the International Air Cargo Forum
and Exhibition 2008 in Kuala Lumpur. "Our research tells us that
long-term economic growth, freighter fleet renewal and moderating
jet fuel prices will stimulate air cargo traffic growth," said
Randy Tinseth, vice president, Marketing, Boeing Commercial
Airplanes. "These positive prospects will prevail despite the
industry's concerns about our current economic challenges.
"World GDP is projected to average just higher than 3 percent
during the next 20 years," Tinseth said. "Asian production
fundamentals -- including abundant raw materials and low-cost labor
-- remain solid, and China will remain a source of strong economic
growth with substantial industrialization and related
investment."
Cargo tends to be at the forefront of increased liberalization
of air services, which is a driver of economic growth.
Asian air cargo market growth will continue to lead all global
traffic routes. Domestic Chinese and intra-Asian markets will grow
9.9 percent and 8.1 percent per year, respectively. Asia-related
markets will experience growth in excess of the global average.
"We've seen market contraction during the middle of this year
for the first time since late 2003; however, history tells us that
the air cargo market returns robustly when the economy
strengthens," said Jim Edgar, regional director, Marketing, Boeing
Commercial Airplanes, and a contributor to the forecast. "Air cargo
remains crucial to globalization."
Boeing predicts the world freighter fleet will increase to 3,890
airplanes from 1,950 during the 20-year period. Large freighters
such as the Boeing 747 and 777 ultimately will represent 35 percent
of the fleet, compared to 26 percent today, while providing 74
percent of total capacity. This segment will require 640 new
factory-built airplanes. More than 75 percent of the 3,360
freighters joining the fleet - 2,500 airplanes - will come from
passenger-to-freighter modifications, while 860 will be new
production freighters.
Edgar noted that Boeing provides the most complete and efficient
freighter product line, including new production freighters and
passenger-to-freighter conversions, teaming with industry leaders
to provide innovative conversion solutions to match virtually any
air cargo requirement.