Government Agency States 65% Chance of Above-Normal Hurricane Activity—With 70% Confidence

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity in 2022.

If their predictions hold true, this year will be the seventh consecutive, above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook, which extends from 01 June to 30 November, predicts a 65% chance of above-normal hurricane activity, a 25% chance of near-normal hurricane activity, and a 10% chance of below-normal … 

For the upcoming hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms [winds of 39 mph or higher], of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes [winds of 74 mph or higher], including 3 to 6 major hurricanes [category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher]. NOAA provides these ranges with 70% confidence. 

Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo States, “Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” Raimondo adds, “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around-the-clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.” Raimondo is a Rhode Island venture capitalist and politician possessed of neither credentials nor experience in the field of meteorology. 

The anticipation of increased activity this hurricane season derives of several climate factors, including: the ongoing La Niña, that is likely to persist through November; warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea; weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds; and an enhanced, west-African monsoon. The latter supports stronger African Easterly Waves, which seed many of the strongest and longest lived hurricanes. The matter of alleged climate change and its impact on the strength and frequency of tropical cyclones is is being studied by NOAA scientists.

FMI: www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season