Forecast International projecting sales of 10,000+ aircraft from 2004 to 2013

Forecast International, in a new study titled “The World Market for Business Jet Aircraft,” projects that a total of 10,809 business jets will be produced between 2004 and 2013.  The value of this production, in constant 2004 U.S. dollars, is estimated at some $135 billion.

According to the study, following two difficult years (2002 and 2003) that saw double-digit declines in business jet production, the business jet industry appears poised for a slow but steady recovery.  The mood at many business jet manufacturers currently appears to be one of cautious optimism.

Data for the first quarter of 2004 already indicate that business jet production is up nearly 14 percent compared to the same period in 2003.  While this pace is expected to slow as the year proceeds, 2004 is nevertheless shaping up as the year that growth resumes in business jet production.  Forecast International predicts that business jet production will indeed begin rising in 2004, and will continue increasing through most of the next 10 years.

The study analyzes the reasons why various companies use business jets, and the benefits of such use.  According to Raymond Jaworowski, a senior aerospace analyst at Forecast International, "Companies that utilize business aircraft can control the travel schedules of their employees."  By providing point-to-point, on-demand transportation, the use of business aircraft can result in significant time savings to employees.  The need for connecting flights disappears, while the time spent at airports is considerably reduced.

The market leader in unit production during the 2004-2013 forecast time period is projected to be Cessna with production of 3,268 business jets, representing a market share of 30.2 percent.  Cessna will be followed by Bombardier (1,699 aircraft; 15.7 percent) and Eclipse Aviation (1,317; 12.2 percent).  Gulfstream and Raytheon are expected to tie for fourth place, with production of 1,083 business jets each, which translates into a 10 percent market share for each.

When the market is measured in U.S. dollars, Gulfstream is expected to take the lead spot, with production worth $32.8 billion, a 24.3 percent share.  The Savannah-based company will be followed by Bombardier ($32.5 billion; 24 percent), Dassault ($22.3 billion; 16.5 percent), and Cessna ($22.2 billion; 16.4 percent).

One of the more dynamic segments within the business jet market is expected to be the entry-level segment, which generally consists of the smallest business jets that are on the market.  This segment not only includes such aircraft as the Cessna CJ1/2/3 and the Raytheon Beechcraft Premier I, but also includes new, so-called "personal jets" such as the Cessna Mustang and the Eclipse 500.  These latter two aircraft are expected to provide much of the growth in the entry-level category during the next 10 years.

Another dynamic market segment is expected to be the long-range business jet class.  Among the aircraft in this segment are several new models that either just recently entered service (the Gulfstream G500), or are not yet in service (the Bombardier Global 5000, the Dassault Falcon 7X, and the Gulfstream G450).

FMI: www.forecast1.com