Analysts Say Boeing May Be Looking At A New Airplane

A report from an aviation analyst indicates that Boeing may be leaning towards a wholesale replacement of its workhorse 737, rather than the re-engining the airplane as had been originally planned.

A number of factors have gone into the thinking, according to the report from Leeham News & Comment. Leeham reports that Richard Sefran of the Buckingham Research said Boeing is leaning towards a new airplane, and that the annual investor's update supports that theory.

Airbus has announced that it will re-engine its fleet of A320 airplanes, so Sefran said that Boeing starting from scratch on a new airplane would put them at a short-term disadvantage. However, an aviation blog from the Seattle Post Intelligencer reports that Sefran thinks Airbus might follow Boeing's lead and start from scratch as well.

The report indicates that a new airplane could push Boeing ahead of Bombardier, which is producing the CSeries airplanes, as well as Embraer, and airplane makers in China and Brazil. Another factor could be that leasing companies would not like to see their existing fleets devalued by a re-engined 737. Replacing the airplane would give those already flying a longer service life.

The Leeham report indicates that if Boeing proceeds with a replacement for the 737, it would "upend all the previous conventional thinking" that there would not be another new airplane from Boeing until after 2025. But Leeham's Scott Hamilton also thinks that Boeing is gambling that Airbus is committed to a re-engining of the A320, and that the WTO ruling against Airbus would keep the European plane maker, which is strapped for cash following its A380, A440M, and A350XWB programs, from following suit and building an entirely new single-aisle airliner.

FMI: www.boeing.com, www.airbus.com