If You Want Your Flight Cancelled, Fly Out Of ORD

Airline passenger volume grew in 2007 despite worsening statistics on flight delays and cancellations, but that doesn't mean savvy frequent fliers aren't changing their travel habits. In what may be the tip of an iceberg of airline customer backlash, Chicago-area fliers are learning that flying from Midway can give them a better chance of staying on schedule than using O'Hare International, even if it sometimes costs more.

The US Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics reports that for the first 10 months of 2007, O'Hare held onto two distinctions it would have preferred to lose. Of the nation's 32 busiest airports, O'Hare was dead last in on-time performance, and led the nation in cancelled flights. According to research by the Chicago Tribune, nearly 4 of every 100 flights from O'Hare were cancelled in 2007, led by shorter routes flown on smaller, regional jets.

The horrible record at O'Hare cannot be blamed on volume. The world's busiest airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International, saw fewer than 6,200 flight cancellations for the first 11 months of 2007, less than half O'Hare's 13,434. And it's not just weather, either -- while Midway is separated from O'Hare by only 14 miles, it saw only one percent of its flights cancelled in 2007, compared with almost four percent for O'Hare.

Chicago physician Julie Ericson told the Trib she knowingly paid $100 more for a flight to Phoenix from Midway than what the same trip would have cost from O'Hare.

"This is the first time it's costing me more to fly from Midway than from O'Hare, but it's worth it just to avoid the painful experience and uncertainty of O'Hare," she said. "I want the best shot at getting where I am going fast and not spending the whole time traveling or not arriving at all."

The new year doesn't seem to be going any better. The Tribune reports through January 18, cancellations at O'Hare totalled 1,124... while only 69 flights from Midway were cancelled. Erin O'Donnell, the city's managing deputy aviation commissioner at Midway, told the paper, "Midway recovers from some conditions quicker because we have a lower volume." In 2007, Midway handled about 300,000 flights, O'Hare almost 927,000.

The Tribune's analysis found that one big advantage Midway has over O'Hare is Southwest Airlines -- which has the best on-time record of the major carriers, is less reliant on hub cities in its routings, and has a strong presence at Midway. Southwest is also free of the labor unrest which plagues some competitors. Industry analysts say many of the flights cancelled over the holidays by United Airlines were necessitated by pilots refusing voluntary overtime.

Based on the paper's research and numbers from the Department of Transportation, it appears a reasonable strategy for minimizing risks of late or cancelled flights would be to fly from smaller airports, on carriers at (relative) peace with their unions, choosing routes which stay clear of the New York metro area, and avoiding regional jets.

Bob Flynn, the FAA's traffic management officer for all Chicago-area airports, told the Tribune some regional jets and their pilots are not qualified to fly in severe low-visibility conditions, making regional short-hops among the first to be cancelled in bad weather.

FMI: www.ohare.com, www.dot.gov, www.bts.gov