Russia May Quit International Space Station In Response to Sanctions

A few days ago, news broke that the head of Russia’s Space Agency, Dmitry Rogozin, threatened to withdraw Russian Support from the International Space Station (ISS) in response to sanctions that were meant to punish Russia for its president’s invasion of Ukraine.

While it was rumored that Russian president, Vladimir Putin expected a swift and decisive takeover of Ukraine since hostilities began on 20th February 2022, the resolve of the Ukrainians has extended the hostilities into its third month, and the Russian president shows no sign of backing down. Dmitry Rogozin has, on more than one occasion, threatened to withdraw from the ISS, and just last month, NASA stated that Russia was committed to the ISS.

Despite global challenges with our neighbors far and wide, the ISS was viewed, the world over, as that rare feat of cooperation that thrived, seemingly, in its own little bubble, far removed, somewhere in the vicinity of 230nm, away from the discord on the surface. That beacon of hope (to coin a phrase and some imagery from the TV series Babylon 5), under the umbrella of the European Space Agency (ESA), was formed through the partnership between 10 European countries, the USA, Canada, Japan, and Russia. Since its construction in 2011, the ISS has welcomed over 150 individuals from 20 countries, with over 60% of those visitors from the USA, and 18% from Russia.

Should Russia finally make good on its threat and withdraw, what are the effects that will be felt by the space program? Well, apparently for starters, Russia controls the propulsion module for the ISS, and in the absence of periodic puffs of air (boosts), it could slowly drop out of orbit, and eventually an untested/ill-equipped re-entry to earth is in store for those still onboard. The images of the space shuttle Columbia disaster from 2003 are still vivid, but the fallout from this will be much worse. 

The ISS has had about 112 long-term crew members, 56 from the USA, 42 from Russia, and the remainder from 8 other countries. Do the resources exist to stage a rescue? Would they truly sacrifice the lives of their own astronauts? Are they willing to incite the wrath of the other ESA member countries? Interestingly, China has no long-term crew on the ISS, however, Ye Guangfu, Wang Yaping, and Zhai Zhigang from China have just passed the ‘200 days in space milestone’. Putting the ISS in peril would be a very bold move on Russia’s part, but do they really want to? 

FMI: https://esa.int, https://nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/main/index.html