Declining FAA Certifications Point to Long-Term Challenges for Airlines

Despite a brief period of pilot oversupply following the COVID-19 pandemic, new data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) indicates a concerning decline in certifications. This threatens to re-ignite the massive pilot shortage faced in recent years.

In 2024, over 9,600 pilots earned FAA certifications. This created a slight oversupply in the labor market, with 0.3% more than required for stability. However, analysts warn that the surge in certifications during the pandemic is tapering off.

In December, certifications remained 40% higher than 2019 levels but were already down 10% compared to the same time in 2023. Projections suggest the current oversupply may transition into a deficit as soon as this year, continuing long-term shortages as retirements outpace new hires.

The problem is compounded by the specialized nature of pilot training and the impact of COVID-era retirements. In 2020, airlines encouraged early retirements and voluntary separations, cutting 50,000 employees from the workforce. While travel demand has rebounded, the pipeline for new pilots has not kept pace.

“That is screeched to a halt,” stated Frontier Airlines CEO Barry Biffle. “When the big guys aren’t hiring, there’s nowhere to go. And so, now I have a cadet program and these kids are screaming at me that, well, when am I going to get hired?”

Industry-wide, hiring challenges are further complicated by reduced aircraft deliveries and an emphasis on limiting capacity to boost profitability. Boeing’s delivery delays mean fewer planes are entering service, reducing the immediate demand for pilots. This lull may temporarily ease pressure on hiring, but risks leaving the industry underprepared when demand surges again.

The current environment presents mixed outcomes, especially moving into a year expected to have record air travel demand. While some pilots secure better contracts and higher wages, others face uncertain timelines for entering the workforce.

FMI: www.faa.gov