It's unlikely to be a surprise to anyone, but United Airlines will soon be announcing layoffs, the first such announcement since its Chapter 11 filing nearly a month ago.

Spokesman Joe Hopkins was quoted in a Tammy Williamson, Chicago Sun-Times story as saying the airline will be figuring out who's going home first, in "...the next few weeks."

Next week, union votes on Friday (Machinists) and Wednesday (the other big unions) will set the stage for who's going to take cuts now, and who's going to try to make everybody else take them, while hoping the airlince can survive. Pilots are looking at 29% reductions in pay; mechanics are considering 13%; FAs are thinking about walking away with their checks' 9% lower. All but the IAM District 141-M (Machinists) have previously agreed to pay cuts; the IAM rejection of their revision is still a sore spot between the mechanics and United's other unionized labor.

Management, also, has already undergone cutbacks, in both numbers and salaries; but the largest portion of UAL's 80,000 people hold union cards, and the company considers union help in meeting cost goals essential.

Glenn Tilton (right), UAL's straight-talking CEO, said in a recorded message to employees, "It's critical that we immediately identify and act upon all other cost savings opportunities that are within our control, and we continue to press forward on that front."

United has until mid-February to meet its first operating-income hurdles; if things continue sour on the Machinist front, the airline may get the bankruptcy judge to void their IAM contract a month later. Of course, the judge will look at all the other labor contracts, as well; but the Machinists are becoming increasingly visible to such observation.

FMI: www.ual.com, www.iamaw.org