Boeing Considers New Version As A380 Orders Spike

As Boeing fights a war of philosophy with its chief commercial aircraft rival, Airbus, it appears the Chicago-based airplane maker may be hedging its bets a little. Once again, there's talk that Boeing may build another updated version of the 747 jumbo jet.

It's not the first time we've heard such talk. But each time the conversation comes up, Boeing customers walk away. Airbus, in the meantime, has signed 129 firm orders for the superjumbo A380 and Boeing is openly banking on the success of the much smaller 7E7 Dreamliner.

The difference in philosophy is striking. Boeing bets more people will want to fly smaller planes to and from many more destinations than can be served by the A380. Airbus, on the other hand, banks on the concept of applying economies of scale to the commercial airline industry, believing that carriers can make more money flying lots of people from major airport to major airport.

A Boeing spokesman says no decision will be made on the proposed 747A model until late 2005. The question, according to Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group, is whether Boeing will spend the money needed to develop a next-generation 747.

"I see no reason (the 747) should be obsolete. It's still a fundamentally great design," he said. But he also noted, "The last 10 years are littered with corpses of chances to rejuvenate the 747."

The proposed 747A would carry 30 more passengers than the top of the line 747-400ER. It would be propelled by new engines and flown from an updated flight deck. There's also talk of sleeping berths and meeting rooms on the aircraft's top deck.

But those are all ideas the airlines have seen and turned down in the past.

Airbus is watching all of this with a jaundiced eye. "They've made several stabs at reinvigorating the 747 and nobody's wanted to buy it," David Venz, a vice president at Airbus North America, said Friday. "If it's so advanced, why hasn't anybody wanted to buy it?"

The bottom line could end up being money. Touting fuel-use projections for the 7E7 and noting the same engine technology would be brought to bear on any revamp of the 747, Boeing says the 747A would be able to fly at a lower cost per passenger than even the A380. As fuel prices continue to surge, that could well be a determining factor.

FMI: www.boeing.com