The X PRIZE Foundation tells ANN that it has completed a study examining the benefits and disadvantages for a Human Orbital Vehicle (HOV) challenge. 

The primary goals of the study were to gauge the interest and effectiveness of different prize amounts, identify key relationships between an HOV challenge and other NASA programs and make recommendations for potential prize rules and requirements.

Key members of the X PRIZE Foundation spent months conducting surveys with potential competitors, financiers and other industry experts.  The results of these interviews were combined with the findings of previously completed studies and internal foundation expertise to create the final conclusions. 

This study represents the commencement of a very serious foray into a major prize initiative for NASA.  Presently, NASA's Centennial Challenges program is limited by the fact that individual prizes cannot exceed $250,000. That may change soon: the NASA Authorization Act of 2005, currently moving through Congress, will allow NASA to award much larger prizes. Both the House and Senate versions of the bill that is scheduled for conference in mid-December include provisions that would allow NASA to offer prizes worth millions of dollars or more.

The study was conducted by X PRIZE founder and chairman Dr. Peter H. Diamandis (shown above, aboard Zero G Corp's G Force One), with Gregg Maryniak as Executive Vice President, Dr. William Gaubatz as Senior Advisor, VP of Operations Michael Kelly and Director of Space Projects William Pomerantz.

The presentation makes for a fascinating brief on the potential for an even more exciting contest than that which was won last year by Burt Rutan's SpaceShipOne... though it is significantly more complex.

The study opines that a $50M prize is probably the minimum amount for any human orbital vehicle challenge and that a $100M award would yield a much more productive program, possibly generating twice as many competing teams. The study thinks that a $250M prize is the ideal target and represents the "best use of funds, (and) biggest stimulus to industry."

It admits that a larger prize, on the order of $500M, might allow major breakthroughs, but introduces new problems, not the least of which is funding the endeavor. The study emphasizes that best results might be achieved by the avoidance of over-regulation and too many constraints -- noting that the orbital challenge is "already hard enough."

FMI: www.xprizefoundation.com/news/HOVES-summary.pdf