Shift Will Be Slow, But The Trend Is Up, Says Brian Foley

General aviation aircraft are typically priced in dollars, and with the index up 15 percent in just the last six months, the industry will slowly see a shift from predominately non-North American buyers to a more even mix.

“This year the non-North American sales component helped arrest a further slide and has been the starting fluid for the downtrodden general aviation industry,” says aviation market advisor Brian Foley. “Those economies and stock markets revved up long before the beleaguered US, and with the dollar remaining weak, effectively rewarded buyers with double-digit discounts when purchasing with their strong, local currencies.”

These trends have been confirmed by some manufacturers who report that well over half their sales now come from non-North American customers, who once represented a traditional 30 percent of all aircraft sales.

What factors underlie this shift? Foley's hypothesis is that offshore buyers have been quietly helping to reduce the bloated inventory of pre-owned aircraft, particularly late models which compete directly with new sales from manufacturers. As the North American economy continues to improve and the dollar value rebounds from its lows, there will slowly be a shift from predominately international sales to roughly an equal mix. Foley believes the US market will eventually help lead the new aircraft sales revival since the most desirable used aircraft will have already been picked over from overseas. “They’ll have no place to go but the new aircraft showroom.”

Foley’s recent 10-year forecast by model calls for North America to account for an average of 52 percent of all future deliveries. This is a fairly significant shift from two aspects: first, that this is a permanent departure from the pre-2000 average of around 70 percent; and second, that it will rebound from the most current estimate of just 40 percent. “Going forward, manufacturers will have to balance their presence and resources more wisely throughout a widening world.”

FMI: www.brifo.com