One of
the most intriguing pieces of information to come out of the annual
Heli-Expo is the Roll-Royce annual ten-year forecast of worldwide
turbine helicopter deliveries. The forecast, which was presented at
Heli-Expo 2003 by Alex Youngs, the company’s Director for
Business Development – Helicopters, projects worldwide
deliveries of turbine-powered helicopters and rotary-wing UAVs in
all size classes, both civil and military, from 2003 until the end
of year 2012.
For the second year in a row, Rolls-Royce has
teamed-up with industry forecasting specialist the Teal Group to
provide what both companies believe is the definitive turbine
helicopter market forecast. This partnership allows the companies
to pool their respective analytical tools, forecasting databases
and industry surveys, thereby creating the most accurate survey
available.
OVERALL SUMMARY
During the 2003-2012 period, some 10,407 turbine helicopter
deliveries are forecast worldwide. This is a five percent increase
over last year’s forecast, attributable to the onset of major
military acquisition programs over the period, together with a
shallower near-term downturn associated with the current economic
downturn. On a unit basis, the split between civil and military
sales is 50:50, although on a value basis, the split is 22:78.
CIVIL SUMMARY
Civil
helicopter deliveries are projected to total 5,161 units during the
next ten years, a seven percent increase over last year’s
forecast. This change is again associated with a forecast
improvement in general economic conditions over the period,
together with an injection of activity provided by paramilitary
sales. Turbine singles (54 percent of deliveries) and light twins
(27 percent) will dominate the market. Deliveries are expected to
grow slowly over the period from a low of 497 units (compared to
480 in 2002) to a peak of 533 at the end of the period.
MILITARY SUMMARY
Our forecast projects a total of 5,246 military helicopter
deliveries and major engine-related upgrades during 2003 - 2012,
which is a four percent increase from last year’s forecast.
This increase reflects the onset of the long-awaited re-equipment
phase of the market and the eventual entry into service of rotary
wing unmanned air vehicles (UAVs), offset by cutbacks in a number
of big ticket programs. Approximately 47 percent of all unit
deliveries will be multi-engine heavy rotorcraft, primarily troop
transports and maritime patrol helicopters, with 24 percent being
intermediate twins (chiefly light attack helicopters and tactical
transports).
The new military rotorcraft shipment forecast
indicates a thirty-three percent increase in military deliveries
over the next five years, with demand levelling-off thereafter. The
number of major engine-related upgrade programs is expected to
triple over the period as key recapitalization efforts commence.
Program delays, budgetary constraints and changes in some
governments’ leadership have historically affected the
approval and delivery schedules, and there still remains what is
considered to be a ‘bow wave’ effect in the military
rotorcraft procurement profile. The problematic nature of this
effect to long-term forecasting is readily exemplified by recent
delays and volume reductions associated with such programs as the
RAH-66 Comanche and Eurocopter Tiger.