Su-57 Is Not Likely To Enter Serial Production Until 2027

A policy memo drafted by a senior Russian policy analyst at Harvard University says that the Russian 5th Generation Su-57 aircraft is on hold for at least a decade.

In the memo published by PONARS Eurasia, analyst Dmitry Gorenburg writes that while the Russians appear to be working to stay ahead of many competitors in areas like anti-ship missiles and electronic warfare, it lags behind in other, significant categories.

In terms of air power, Gorenburg says that under the Russian State Armament Program (SAP) for 2018-2027 which lays out Russia's rearmament priorities for the next 10 years, Sukhoi's 5th generation fighter, the Su-57 (formerly the T-50 or PAK-FA) will not enter serial production until upgraded engines are ready, which is not likely before 2027. "Over the next eight years, Russia will continue to purchase small numbers of these planes for testing. It will also continue to purchase Su-35S fighter jets, with a new contract for 50 additional aircraft signed in late 2016," Gorenburg wrote. "Purchases of Su-30SM fighter jets and Su-34 strike aircraft will also continue, most likely at rates of 12-18 aircraft per year of each type. Mikoyan MiG-35 fighter aircraft may also be procured, but probably not in large numbers.

"Overall, with many modern fighter aircraft now in place, rates of procurement will slow in order to allow for the purchase of other types of aircraft. The same goes for military helicopters, since the Russian military has received what it needs in new helicopters during the last seven years. Development of a new high-speed helicopter will not start until after 2027," he concludes.

The analyst says that one area of focus will be transport and refueling aircraft, which have been a area of weakness for the Russian Air Force. Serial production of the Ilyushin Il-76-MD90A, which has been plagued with development problems, is expected to start in 2019.

(Image from file)

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